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Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Mon Apr 1

A Large Upper Low Will Move Ewd Across Ontario And Quebec With Broad Cyclonic Flow Aloft Persisting From The Mo And Ms Valley Ewd To The Atlantic Coast. Meanwhile...A Shortwave Trough Is Forecast To Move Slowly Ewd Across The Four Corners States...Emerging Into The Srn High Plains By The End Of The Period/Tue Morning.

At The Surface...A Cold Front Will Generally Lie From Nwrn Tx Ewd
Along The Red River And Into Cntrl Ms/Al/Ga During The Afternoon.
This Front Will Be The Primary Focusing Mechanism For Possible
Severe Thunderstorms Across Tx.

Nwrn Into Cntrl Tx...

Daytime Heating Will Lead To Destabilization S Of The Cold Front
Across Cntrl And W Cntrl Tx...With Mucape On The Order Of 2000 J/Kg.
Surface Winds Within The Low Pressure Trough Will Generally Be
Light...But Convergence Should Be Enough To Force Storms Along The Heated Portion Of The Front Despite Shortwave Ridging Aloft During The Day. Mid To Upper Level Flow Will Be Modestly Strong...And Will Favor Isolated Cells Capable Of Large Hail And Locally Strong Wind Gusts. A Few Cells Could Be Long Lived.

As The Cold Front Continues Swd During The Evening...Storms Will
Become Undercut And Elevated...With Any Wind Threat Waning. The Hail Threat May Persist Though As A Low Level Jet Strengthens Warm
Advection Atop The Front.

Nern Tx...Nrn La...Cntrl Ms...

Marginal Instability Will Develop Near The Cold Front Across Ern Tx... La And Ms With Strong Heating. Although Forcing Will Be Weak...And Midlevel Lapse Rates This Far E Will Be Weak...Isolated Thunderstorms Will Be Likely...And A Storm Or Two Could Produce
Marginal Hail Or A Strong Wind Gust.


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