Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Fri May 24

Some Ewd Progression Of The Ern U.S. Trough Is Forecast This
Period...Which Will Allow The Central U.S. Ridge To Broaden Ewd
Somewhat -- Though Progged To Remain Fixed Over The Central U.S.
Through The Period. Meanwhile...The Wrn U.S. Trough Is Expected To Remain In Place...Though The Embedded Upper Low Over The Pac Nw May Lift Slowly Nwd/Newd With Time.

At The Surface...
Expect The Ern U.S. Cold Front To Move Offshore Early...Trailing Wwd Across N Fl...The Gulf Coast...And Into Tx During The Afternoon. Meanwhile...A Cold Front Will Linger Across The Intermountain West...While A Lee Trough Resides Across The Length Of The High Plains Through The Period.

High Plains From Sern Mt/Swrn Nd Swd To Ern Nm/Far W Tx...

As Isolated To Scattered Convection Likely Ongoing Early In The
Period Shifts Ewd Across The Plains...A Destabilizing But Generally
Capped Boundary Layer Is Expected To Exist W Of The Ongoing
Precipitation -- Along And Ahead Of The Lee Trough Forecast To
Reside Over The High Plains.

Scattered Storm Redevelopment Is Forecast Invof The Lee Trough By Mid To Late Afternoon -- As Weak Mid-Level Vorticity Maxima Translate Ewd Into The Mean Ridge Position. With Generally Modest /Aob 30 Kt/ Mid-Level Wlys Forecast Atop Low-Level Selys...Shear Marginally Supportive Of Organized-Rotating Updrafts Will Exist -- Particularly Where Low-Level Flow May Be Locally Stronger/More Veered.

This Combination Of Ample Shear/Instability But Mean Large-Scale Ridging Suggests That Severe Threat Will Remain Isolated In General -- And Thus Will Introduce Only A Broad 5% Threat Area Over The High Plains Attm.

Pockets Of Greater Threat May Be Able To Be Discerned In Later Forecasts Which Could Warrant Eventual Insertion Of Small Slight Risk Areas.


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