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Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Fri Jun 14

Ewd Progression Of An Ern U.S. Trough Is Forecast To Continue
Today...With This Feature Forecast To Shift Offshore Overnight.

Meanwhile Upstream...The Large-Scale Ridge Prevailing Over The
Central U.S. Is Progged To Deamplify...Becoming Flattened On Its Nrn
Periphery By The Upper Trough Ejecting Newd Out Of The Nwrn U.S.
Toward The Canadian Prairie/Nrn Plains.

Farther W However...A Second Upper Low Digging Sewd Out Of The Gulf Of Ak Along The Nwrn Noam Coast Will Act To Maintain The Overall Large-Scale Trough Over The West.

The Only Other Feature Of Note Will Be A Weak Low/Vort Max Progged To Shift Newd Across Wrn Tx This Period.

At The Surface...A Front Will Linger Across Nrn Fl And The Gulf
Coastal Region. Meanwhile...An Occluded Front -- Trailing S From A
Low Over The Canadian Prairie Will Cross The Nrn Plains...As A
Triple Point Low Crosses Neb.

Central And Nrn Plains/Mid Mo Valley Area...

The Primary Severe Threat This Period Will Be Across The Warm Sector Across Neb...And Just N Of The Triple Point Invof The Occluded Front Into Ern Sd. Here...A Destabilizing Airmass Will Eventually Contribute To Isolated Storm Development...As The Cap Weakens Locally Invof The Front. With The Srn Fringe Of Stronger Flow Aloft Across This Area...A Few Supercells Capable Of Hail And Damaging Winds Can Be Expected.

Overnight...As A Low-Level Jet Develops Across The Plains...Elevated Convection Should Increase Into Srn Mn/Ia And Vicinity...Where Potential For Large Hail Will Continue Into The Overnight Hours.

Nrn Fl/Srn Ga...

Showers And Thunderstorms -- Possibly Ongoing Early In The Period -- Are Forecast To Continue Through Much Of The Period Invof The Cold Front Sagging Slowly Swd Across The Area. While This Ongoing
Convection Should Hinder Destabilization To Some Degree...A Few
Stronger Cells -- Aided By Enhanced /20 To 25 Kt/ Nly Mid-Level Flow
-- May Organize Into A Multicell Cluster Or Two. Thus...Associated
Potential For Locally Gusty/Damaging Winds And Possibly Hail
Warrants Introduction Of Low /5%/ Severe Probability This Forecast.


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