Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Fri Dec 7


The Overall Upper Pattern -- Featuring Slow Amplification Of Broadly
Cyclonic Flow Covering The Conus -- Is Expected To Be Maintained Day 3...With A Large/Longwave Trough To Cover Nearly All Of Noam By The End Of The Period.

At The Surface...A Wsw-To-Ene-Oriented Cold Front Near The Leading
Edge Of The Expanding Upper Trough Is Forecast To Move Slowly Esewd Across S Central And Ern U.S. With Time. Gradual Moistening/Weak Destabilization Of The Airmass Ahead Of The Front Will Support A Zone Of Deep Convective Potential Through The Period.

Arklatex Region Newd To The Mid Ms/Lower Oh/Tn Valleys...

As Moistening/Modest Destabilization Occurs Through The Day Ahead Of The Slowly Advancing Front...Bands Of Showers And Embedded Thunderstorms Are Expected To Develop. While The Individual Storms Should Remain Largely Transient/Disorganized...A Few Clusters Of Stronger Storms Will Be Possible Invof The Threat Area -- Aided By Moderately Strong/Weakly Veering Flow Aloft On The Sern Fringe Of The Upper Trough.

With The Boundary Layer Across Much Of The Area -- Particularly With Newd Extent -- Likely To Remain Slightly Decoupled...It Would Appear Attm That Surface-Based Wind/Tornado Threat Would Remain Muted. Main Potential Would Appear To Be A Couple Of Marginal Hail Events...But Given Non-Zero Potential For Overall Severe Threat Will Introduce 5% Probability Forecast Attm.

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