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Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Fri Dec 14

Synopsis...

Models Indicate That Strong Upper Jet Intensification Will Continue
Across The Central And Southern Tier Of The U.S. During This
Forecast Period.

Across The Plains...This Flow Likely Will Trend Toward West Southwesterly...As Initial Short Wave Ridging Breaks Down In Response To The Northeastward Acceleration Of A Significant Short Wave Trough And Embedded Closed Low Out Of The Southwestern
States.

Increasing Spread Among The Various Models Concerning The Details Of This Process By Thursday Night Does Grow Through Friday/Friday Night. However...In General...Guidance Indicates That
A 90+ Kt 500 Mb Speed Maximum...Nosing Through The Northwestern Mexican Plateau At 12z Friday...Will Propagate Into And Through The South Central Plains/Ozark Plateau Region By The End Of The Period.

This Feature May Weaken In Strength As It Does...But It Appears That
Strong Mid-Level Height Falls Will Overspread The Central Plains
With A Surface Low Deepening Across Southeast Colorado Late Friday Afternoon...Before Migrating Northeastward Toward The Mid/Lower Missouri Valley.

Forcing For Upward Vertical Motion And Cooling In The Exit Region Of
The Jet Probably Will Contribute To A Continuing Risk For
Thunderstorm Activity Across Parts Of The Great Basin And Central/ Southern Rockies Into Friday Afternoon.

Thereafter...The Primary Convective Potential Will Shift To The Plains And Portions Of The Missouri/Middle Mississippi Valleys...In Response To The Large-Scale Forcing. However...At Least Through 12z Saturday... Significant Gulf Moisture Return May Not Occur In Time To Support More Than Low Severe Weather Probabilities.

Southern Plains Into Parts Of The Ozark Plateau...

Guidance Remains Suggestive That The Lack Of Better Phasing Between Mid/Upper Forcing For Upward Vertical Motion And Boundary Layer Destabilization Will Hinder The Risk For Severe Storm Development.

Mid/Upper 50s Dew Points May Only Advect As Far North As
Southwestern Oklahoma/Northwest Texas Portions Of A Developing Dry Line By Early Friday Evening...When 60f+ Surface Dew Points May Be In The Process Of Developing Northward Into Central Texas. This
Appears Likely To Be Generally South Of The Axis Of The Cyclonic
Mid-Level Jet Streak As It Noses Into The South Central Plains.

However...Moisture Return/Destabilization And Lift Above A Residual
Cool/Stable Near Surface Layer Is Expected To Support Elevated Storm Development...Which Could Be Become Capable Of Producing Marginally Severe Hail...Generally North Of The Red River...Across Oklahoma...Before Spreading Into Arkansas Overnight.

Farther South...It May Not Be Out Of The Question That Continued
Northward Advection Of Boundary Layer Moisture...And Lift Associated
With Low-Level Warm Advection...Could Support Boundary Layer Based Or Near Boundary Layer Based Storm Development Across Parts Of Northern Texas Overnight. If This Occurs...Vertical Shear Will Be More Than Sufficient For Supercells.


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