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Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Fri Apr 12

Mean Position Of A Large-Scale Upper-Level Trough Should Remain
Centered Across The Great Lakes With Several Embedded Shortwave
Impulses Gyrating Around The Center. The Most Prominent Impulse To Influence Severe Potential Will Be One Expected To Reach The
Mid-Atlantic Either Late D2 Or Early D3. A Surface Cold Front Will
Continue To Move Ewd And Should Exit The Mid/South Atlantic Coast By Fri Evening.

Mid/South Atlantic Coast...

Guidance Continues To Differ With The Handling Of A Quick-Moving
Shortwave Impulse /Currently Located Within The Basal Portion Of The Broad Upper-Level Trough Over Nwrn Mexico/. The Consistent... But Unique Ecmwf Depicts A More Prominent Negative-Tilt Impulse Than The Gfs/Nam/Cmc/Ukmet...Across The Srn Appalachians At 12z/Fri.

With More Intense Low/Mid-Level Flow And Robust Convective Signal In The Ecmwf...There Remains Concern That Damaging Wind/ Tornado Threats From D2 Could Persist Into Early D3 Across Parts Of The Coastal Plain. But The Bulk Of Guidance Depicts This Impulse To Be Weaker/Faster Which Suggests That Forcing For Ascent Will Be Diminishing Fri Morning And That Slight Risk Potential Will Remain Conditional On There Being Ongoing Tstms.

By Midday/Early Afternoon...Mid-Level Lapse Rates Should Be Poor And With Increasingly Veered/Weakening Low-Level Wind Profiles... Convergence Along The Front Should Be Modest Within A Marginal Environment For Locally Damaging Winds.


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