Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Wed Jan 30

Axis Of High Amplitude Synoptic Trough Should Extend From The Upper Ms Valley Into The Srn Plains Early Wednesday.

A Vort Max Embedded Within The Trough Is Forecast To Move From The Mid Ms Valley Into The Great Lakes. While Secondary Vort Max Will Eject Newd Through The Tn And Oh Valleys During The Afternoon And Evening.

A 120+ Kt 500 Mb Jet Accompanying The Upper Trough Will Develop Enewd Through Sern States...Oh Valley And Great Lakes During The Day.

Primary Sfc Low Will Initially Be Situated Over The Great Lakes Within The Exit Region Of The Upper Jet.

This Feature Will Lift Newd Into Sern Canada...While Trailing Cold Front Advances Through The Sern States...Reaching The Nern U.S. And Atlantic Seaboard Late Wednesday Night.

Sern U.S. Through Oh Valley And Mid Atlantic Region...

Partially Modified Gulf Air Will Have Already Advected Through The
Warm Sector Along A Very Strong And Expansive 65-75 Kt Sly Llj.

Dewpoints Will Range From Mid To Upper 60s Over Srn Portions Of The Gulf Coastal States To Upper 50s Or Around 60 From The Oh Valley Into The Mid Atlantic Region. However...Instability Is Expected To
Remain Marginal Due To Widespread Clouds And Weak Lapse Rates. Mlcape Should Range From Aob 800 J/Kg Over The Sern States To Aob 500 J/Kg Farther North Across The Oh Valley And Mid Atlantic.

Expansive Line Of Storms Will Be In Progress Wednesday Morning Along And Just Ahead Of Cold Front From The Oh Valley Swd Through The Tn And Lower Ms Valley Regions Posing An Ongoing Severe Threat.

Activity Will Continue Through The Remainder Of Sern States And Oh
Valley During The Day And Carolinas To Mid Atlantic Wednesday
Evening And Overnight. Storms Will Be Embedded Within Very Strong
Deep Layer Wind Profiles With Effective Shear In Excess Of 60 Kt
Along With Large 0-1 Km Hodographs Supporting The Likelihood Of
Embedded Bowing Structures...Meso-Vortices And Supercells.

Potential For Large Scale Ascent Within Upper Jet Entrance Region And Weak Cap Suggest A Few Discrete Supercells Might Develop Along Conveyor Belt Ahead Of The Line...Especially Over Portions Of The Sern States Where Higher Boundary Layer Dewpoints And Instability Should Reside.

Primary Threats Will Be Damaging Wind And A Few Tornadoes...With The Greater Tornado Threat Expected Over The Sern States.

The Marginal Thermodynamic Environment Precludes An Upgrade To A Moderate Risk For Now...But Area Will Continue To Be Evaluated.


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