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Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Wed Dec 26

Mdt Risk Of Svr Tstms Over Central And Ern Parts Of The Carolinas...
Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms For Nrn/Central Fl And Srn Ga Nwd To Srn Va...

Synopsis...

Progressive Upper Flow Pattern Is Forecast To Continue Tomorrow As A Vigorous Cold Upper Low /Currently Over The Srn Plains/ Is Forecast To Move Rapidly From The Tn Valley To The Srn Middle Atlantic Region During The Period. Very Large 12 Hr 500 Mb Height Falls Of 180 M And Strong Winds Aloft Will Accompany This System...With 90-100 Kt 500 Mb Winds And 60-70 Kt Flow At 850 Mb.

At The Surface...Models Indicate That The Primary Low Will Develop
Over Nrn Ga And Deepen As It Moves Newd East Of The
Appalachians...Moving Across The Nc Piedmont During The Late
Afternoon/Evening And Continuing Across The Delmarva Region Later At Night.

A Strong Cold Front Extending Swd From The Low Will Surge Ewd Toward The Atlantic Coast And Sewd Across The Fl Peninsula... Moving Offshore Into The Atlantic Waters Overnight. A Warm Front Extending From The Nc Coast Swwd Across Central Ga Will
Gradually Lift Nwd...Extending From Nern Nc Into The Piedmont By
Late Afternoon. These Boundaries And Surface Low Will Provide The
Primary Low Level Focusing Mechanisms For Strong/Severe Thunderstorm Development.

Central/Ern Carolinas...

A Strong/Severe Broken Qlcs With Embedded Bow Echoes And Possible Supercells/Meso-Vortices Is Expected To Be Ongoing At The Start Of The Period...Extending From Nrn Ga Swd Into The Gulf Of Mexico South Of Tlh. As The Aforementioned Warm Front Lifts Nwd...Low Level Moisture Will Increase Inland With Low/Mid 60s F Surface Dew Points Spreading Into The Warm Sector. Although Clouds And Areas Of Lighter Precipitation Will Inhibit Diabatic Heating...The Air Mass Is Expected To Destabilize With Mlcape Reaching 1000 J/Kg In Parts Of The Warm Sector. Very Strong Dynamic Forcing For Large Scale Ascent Within The Left Exit Region Of The Cyclonic Upper Level Jet Will Overspread The Warm Sector During The Morning. This Will Enhance Convective Storm Intensity Within The Qlcs And Support Additional Initiation Of Discrete Cells And Clusters In The Weakly Capped Warm Sector.

Very Strong Deep Layer Shear Of 50-70 Kt In The Lowest 6 Km Will Be
Supportive Of Updraft Rotation And Bowing Segments Capable Of
Producing More Widespread Damaging Wind Gusts And Potential For
Tornadoes Along The Qlcs. Given The Very Strong Low Level Shear And Srh /200-500 M2 Per S2 For Right-Moving Supercells/ And Expected Rapid Storm Motion...There Will Also Be Potential For Several Long-Track Strong Tornadoes Associated With Any Discrete Persistent Supercells That May Form Through The Afternoon And Early Evening.

The Severe Threat Will Gradually End From The West As The Low And
Cold Front Continue To Move Rapidly Newd/Ewd Through The Evening Hours.

Ga Swd Into Nrn/Central Fl

A Threat For Damaging Wind Gusts And Isolated Hail Will Extend Swd
From Parts Of Srn/Ern Ga Into Nrn/Central Fl As The Line Of
Convection Moves Ewd During The Day. The Risk Is Expected To
Gradually Diminish With Swd Extent As The Primary Dynamic Forcing
Moves Ewd/Newd Across The Carolinas And Middle Atlantic Region.


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