Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Wed Dec 12

Synopsis...

Broad Upper Troughing Now Encompassing Much Of Interior North
America Still Appears Likely To Give Way To A More Distinct Split
Upper Flow By Wednesday.

One Of These Branches Appears Likely To Extend In Generally Zonal Fashion Across Southern Canada And Adjacent Portions Of The Northern Tier States...While A Branch To The South Becomes Increasingly Amplified Across The Pacific Coast Through Much Of The Central And Southern Tier States.

Within This Latter Stream...And To The South Of A Northern Branch Short Wave Ridge Shifting Into British Columbia...A Significant Short Wave Trough Is Still Forecast To Dig Southward Near The California
Coast...Contributing To Lower/Mid Tropospheric Cyclogenesis Across
Parts Of Central California And The Great Basin. While This Occurs... Downstream Ridging Is Expected To Continue To Build And Broaden Eastward From The Central And Southern Rockies Into The Central And Southern Appalachians By The End Of The Period...As Remnant Upper Troughing Lifts Out Of The Lower Mississippi Valley And West Central Gulf Coast Region.

The Various Models Appear In Better Agreement With The Eastward
Acceleration Of This Latter Feature...And Generally To The Slower
Side Of What Most Guidance Has Previously Suggested. This Could
Have Some Impact On Convective Potential Across Parts Of The Florida Peninsula On Wednesday. Otherwise...Much Of The Nation Will Be Generally Stable With Negligible Risk For Thunderstorm Activity.

Florida Peninsula...

The Short Wave Impulse Accelerating East Northeast Of The Western
Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley Region Is Expected To Remain
Mostly North Of Cold Front Advancing Southward Into The Central
Peninsula By Early Wednesday.

However...Given Its Slower Movement...And Perhaps Better Phasing With A Strengthening Belt Of Westerlies Emerging From The Subtropical Eastern Pacific...Associated Lift Could Enhance The Risk For Thunderstorm Development Across Parts Of The Interior Central And Southern Peninsula.

The Magnitude Of Potential Destabilization Remains Unclear At This Time...And Given The Somewhat Marginal Nature Of The Anticipated Lower/Mid Tropospheric Flow And Shear...The Risk For Severe Storms Still Appears Low. However...It May Not Be Completely Negligible.


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