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Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Tue Sep 3

Northern Rockies/Northern Inter-Mountain Region...

Weak Height Rises Are Expected Across The Nwrn U.S. Tuesday As
Strong Low Wobbles Off The Wa/Ore Coast. With Upper High Expected To Remain Anchored Over Co A Corridor Of Modest-Strong Swly Flow Aloft Will Extend Across Wa/Ore Into Extreme Nrn Id.

Along The Leading Edge Of This Stronger Flow Aloft It Appears An Arcing Band Of Higher Pw...Values On The Order Of One Inch...Will Extend From Wa...Sewd Along The Id Border.

Models Suggest Intense Heating Will Be Noted Across Interior Wa/Ore And Despite Neutral Large Scale Forcing It Appears Convective Temperatures Should Be Breached And Isolated Tstms Should Develop After 21z. Given The Forecast Deep Shear Across This Region There Is Some Concern That Organized Rotating Updrafts May Transpire And Even A Few Supercells Are Possible.

Will Maintain 5 Percent Severe Probs Across This Region For Wind/Hail But If More Significant Convective Coverage Becomes Expected Then A Slgt Risk May Be Needed.

Sd...

Upper Ridge Will Remain Anchored Over The High Plains And Sfc Lee Trough Is Expected To Oscillate Only Slightly With A Possible Ewd
Nudge Across Sd Late In The Period. This Ewd Nudge May Be Partly In Response To Weak Short-Wave Trough That Will Shift Into The Upper Ms Valley By 04/00z. In Its Wake Strong Heating Near The Black Hills Should Prove Instrumental In Afternoon Convection...Aided In Part By Weak Warm Advection Just East Of Sfc Low. High Based Tstms Could Evolve Across This Region That Would Pose A Low Risk For Wind/Hail.

Nrn New England...

Broad Troughing Will Advance Across The Nern U.S. During The Period With Trough Axis Expected To Be Located Across Wrn Ny/Pa At 18z Tuesday. Ahead Of This Wind Shift...Swly Flow Aloft Is Expected To Increase Aoa 40kt Across Nrn New England. Modest Heating Is
Forecast Across This Region Along/Ahead Of Weak Low Level Confluence Zone Where Sfc Temperatures Should Rise Through The Upper 70s To Perhaps 80f. Isolated Tstms That Evolve Across This Region Will Do So Within A Modestly Sheared Environment That Would Prove Supportive Of Locally Strong Wind Gusts And Marginally Severe Hail.


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