Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Tue Jun 11

Stronger Mid-Level Flow Will Extend From Ca Ewd Across The
Central/Nrn Plains And Into The Mid-Atlantic/Nern States During The
Period. An Impulse Within This Flow Will Move Newd From The Central Inter-Mountain Region Into The Central/Nrn Plains. A Second Upper Level Impulse Will Move Newd Off The Mid-Atlantic/New England Coast Early In The Period. At The Surface...A Frontal Boundary Will Extend From Nern Wy Into Neb And Then E/Sewd Into Il During The Aftn Tue.

Central/Nrn Plains And Midwest...

The Warm Sector Along And South Of The Frontal Boundary Is Expected To Remain Capped For Much Of The Day Tuesday Given Large-Scale Ridging South Of The Stronger Flow Aloft.

Tstms Are Expected To Develop Across The Higher Terrain In Nern Wy/Sern Mt Tue Aftn As The Upper Level Impulse Provides Forcing For Ascent In Combination With A Moist Low-Level Upslope Flow. As These Tstms Move Genly Ewd Into A Strongly Unstable And Sheared Environment...Supercells Are Possible Along With The Potential For Upscale Growth Into Clusters Or A Forward-Propagating Mcs During The Evening Across Sd/Nrn Neb.

Svr Tstms May Also Develop Along Or Just North Of The Frontal
Boundary Across Nrn Ia/Srn Mn Ewd Into Nrn Il Tue Evening/Overnight
As A Stg Swly Low-Level Jet Increases Warm Advection. Large Hail And Damaging Winds Will Be Possible. Some Potential Exists Sewd From This Area Into Much Of Ind...However With Lower Confidence Will Maintain 5 Percent Svr Probs For This Update.

Although Forecast Soundings Suggest The Boundary Layer Should Remain Capped Along The Frontal Boundary For Much Of The Aftn...Should A Storm Develop Over Portions Of Neb/Sd/Ia Where Mlcinh Is Locally Reduced Through Diurnal Heating...The Environment Would Favor Supercells Given Strong Deep-Layer Shear Of 40-50 Kts And Mlcapes In Excess Of 3000 J/Kg.

Southeast U.S...

A Few Tstms Are Expected To Develop Across The Sern States As The
Base Of The Ern U.S. Upper Trough Crosses This Area. Ample
Instability Will Remain In Place However Modest Shear Suggests
Storms Should Remain Genly Disorganized...With Only A Few Pulse Or Multicell Tstms Likely To Become Capable Of Producing Svr Hail/Wind During The Aftn.

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