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Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Tue Jan 29

The High Amplitude Upper Trough Now Over The Wrn U.S. Will Advance Ewd...With Model Consensus Indicating That The Trough Axis Will Be Located From Mn Through Cntrl/Ern Tx By The End Of This Period.

Mid Level Jet And Attendant Vort Max Located Within Base Of The Trough Should Eject From The Srn Plains Through The Lower-Mid Ms Valley Tuesday Night.

As This Occurs A Cyclone Will Deepen And Lift Newd Through The Mid Ms Valley Region. A Polar Front Will Extend From The Sfc Low Over Ia Swwd Into Cntrl/Srn High Plains Early Tuesday...With A Pacific Front/Dryline Extending Swd Through Wrn Tx.

Polar Front Will Advance Sewd During The Day...While The Pacific Front Surges Ewd And Merges With Dryline...Continuing Through The Lower Ms Valley Overnight.

Srn Plains Through Lower Ms Valley Region...

Potential Exists For A Significant Severe Weather Event Tuesday With
Damaging Wind And Tornadoes The Primary Threats...Especially During The Evening And Overnight In Moderate Risk Area.

Observations Show A Reservoir Of Middle To Upper 60s Dewpoints From Cntrl Into Srn Tx. Sly Boundary Layer Flow Already Exists From The Srn Plains Into The Lower Ms Valley And Will Strengthen Tuesday In Association With An Intensifying Llj. Widespread Multi-Layer Clouds Will Limit Boundary Layer Warming During The Day. However...Mid 60s Dewpoints Should Advect As Far North As Sern Ok Into Cntrl Ar And Nrn Ms Beneath A Plume Of 6.5 C/Km Mid Level Lapse Rates Resulting In At Least 500-1000 J/Kg Mlcape.

Storms Are Expected To Develop Within Pre-Frontal Confluence Band
Across Cntrl/Ern Ok Into Ncntrl/Nern Tx Early Tuesday And Shift Ewd
And Newd During The Day.

Other Storms May Develop Farther South Through Ern Tx During The Afternoon Along Merging Pacific Front And Shift Ewd Through The Lower Ms Valley. The Boundary Layer Will Moisten Sufficiently For This Activity To Become Sfc Based. Storms Will Be Embedded Within Strong Deep Layer Flow With A 50+ Kt Sly Llj And Mid Level Winds Increasing To 80 Kt.

Storms Are Expected To Evolve Into A Predominant Qlcs With Embedded Supercell And Bowing Segments Posing A Risk For Damaging Wind And Tornadoes.

Tornado Threat May Increase Overnight...Especially In Moderate Risk Area Where Llj Intensifying To In Excess Of 70 Kt Will Be Collocated With Nrn Edge Of Mid 60s Dewpoints.

Upper Ms Valley Through Tn Valley Region...

Other Storms Will Expand Newd Through The Mid Ms Valley And Swrn
Parts Of Oh Valley Where Instability Will Be More Limited...But
Sufficient For A Threat For Damaging Wind With Primary Mode Being
Lines And Bowing Segments With Meso Vortices. A Few Embedded
Supercells Will Also Be Possible Given Size Of Hodographs And
Strength Of Deep Layer Flow/Shear Suggesting A Few Tornadoes Cannot Be Ruled Out.


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