Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Tue Dec 25

Mdt Risk Of Svr Tstms For Parts Of La...Central/Srn Ms...And Wrn Al...

Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms For Ern Tx To Gulf Coast/Lower Ms Valley And Srn Appalachians...

An Energetic Flow Pattern Is Evident In Satellite Imagery From The
Eastern Pacific Across The Conus As A Series Of Vigorous Upper
Troughs Progress Ewd.

The Primary System Associated With A Major Severe Weather Threat Tomorrow Is Currently Over The Great Basin.

With Latest Upper Air Data Indicating The Strongest Mid/Upper Level
Winds Digging Into The Swrn Portion Of The Trough...Model Consensus Indicates The System Will Amplify/Develop Into A Progressive Closed Low Moving Across The Srn Plains During The Day Reaching The Middle Ms Valley By 26/12z.

At The Surface...A Broad Low Pressure Region Over Central/Ern Tx Early In The Period Is Forecast To Consolidate Into A Deepening Low Moving Across Nrn La During The Afternoon And Continuing Into Middle Tn By The End Of The Period.

An East-West Oriented Warm Front From Sern Tx Across The Srn Parts Of Ms/Al And Ga Will Slowly Lift Nwd As The Low Moves Newd...While A Cold Front Extending Swwd From The Low Is Expected To Accelerate Ewd /Especially During The Night/ Across The Lower Ms Valley Reaching Al By 26/12z.

Gulf Coast Region/Lower Ms Valley...

Areas Of Strong/Severe Thunderstorms Are Expected To Be Ongoing From Ern Tx Into The Lower Ms Valley At The Start Of The Period As
Intense Large Scale Ascent In The Left Exit Region Of The Upper
Level Jet Coincides With Focused Low Level Convergence/Warm
Advection Along/North Of The Warm Front.

South Of The Warm Front...Surface Dew Points In The Low/Mid 60s F Will Be Returning Nwd Across A Broad Warm Sector Extending Across Much Of The Gulf Coast Region. This Will Contribute To An Unstable Environment With Mlcape Ranging From 1000-1250 J/Kg Near The Coast To Aob 500 J/Kg North Of The Warm Front.

Strong Winds In The Mid And Upper Levels /70-90 Kt At 500 Mb And
110+ Kt At 250 Mb/ Will Result In Deep Layer Shear Supportive Of
Rotating Updrafts...Including Elevated Supercells North Of The Warm
Front.

As The Day Progresses...Forced Ascent Along The Advancing Cold Front Is Expected To Result In Qlcs Development Containing Embedded Fast-Moving Bow Echoes And Possible Supercells/Meso-Vortices As It Moves Ewd Across La And The Srn Half Of Srn Ms.

There Will Also Be Continued Potential For A Few Discrete Supercells In The Warm Sector And Along The Warm Front Ahead Of The Qlcs. Low Lcl Heights And Clockwise Turning Low Level Hodographs /Srh Values Of 200-400 M2 Per S2/ Indicate Potential For
Tornadic Supercells.

The Possibility Exists For Several Long-Track Strong Tornadoes Near The Warm Front Associated With Any Long-Lived Fast-Moving Supercells...Along With More Widespread Damaging Winds Along The Most Intense Parts Of The Bowing Qlcs.

Despite Gradually Decreasing Instability As Boundary Layer Cooling Occurs After Dark...A Severe Threat Is Expected To Spread Ewd/Newd Across Parts Of Al...Srn Tn And Wrn Ga During The Night As The System Moves Eastward.


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