Model Ensemble Forecasts Continue To Exhibit Increasing Spread
During This Forecast Period Concerning Short Wave Developments
Within A Branch Of Westerlies Emerging From The Northeast
Pacific...Before Curving Across The U.S. In A Broadly Cyclonic
In General...Though...It Still Appears Likely That A Significant Short Wave Trough Will Begin To Dig More Sharply Southward Near The Pacific Coast. As It Does..Short Wave Ridging Should Build Across The Southern And Central Intermountain Region...Rockies And Plains...While Remnant Downstream Troughing Shifts Eastward Across The Mississippi Valley.
It Appears That One More Vigorous Impulse May Pivot Through The Base Of The Latter Feature...With Associated Downstream Forcing For Upward Vertical Motion Contributing To The Risk For Thunderstorm Activity Along And Ahead Of A Slow Moving Frontal Zone.
The Front Is Expected To Advance Through The Remainder Of The Southeast Into The Florida Peninsula And Adjacent Western Atlantic And Eastern Gulf Of Mexico. While Weak Destabilization Within A Moist Layer Elevated Above The Frontal Inversion /North Of The Surface Front/ May Contribute To Scattered Storm Development From The Eastern Gulf Coastal Plain Into The Piedmont And Coastal Plain Of The Carolinas...The Most Significant Convection Appears Likely To Occur Across The Central Florida Peninsula.
This Does Appear To Include The Risk For Severe Thunderstorms.
The Various Models Appear Similar...And Now More Bullish...With
Pre-Frontal Moistening By Tuesday. This May Include An Influx Of
Moisture Of Caribbean Origins...Resulting In Surface Dew Points Near 70f...And Precipitable Water As High As 1.75+ Inches.
With At Least Some Boundary Layer Heating...Mixed Layer Cape On The Order 1000 J/Kg Seems Probable...In The Presence Of At Least Modest Deep Layer Southwesterly Mean Flow. Lower/Mid- Tropospheric Flow May Not Be Particularly Strong...But A Gradual Increase From 30 To 40+ Kt At Mid-Levels Across The Central Peninsula During The Day May Be Enough To Support Updraft Rotation...And Perhaps Supercell Structures...With Severe Weather Potential.
The Focus For Storm Development Still Appears Likely To Be A Pre-Frontal Confluence Zone Extending Southwest To Northeast Across The Central Peninsula...And There Are Perhaps Increasing Indications That Activity May Be Enhanced By A Strengthening Divergent Upper Flow Field During The Afternoon Hours.
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