Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Thu May 23

Upper Low Over The Upper Ms Valley Is Forecast To Move Ewd And
Weaken Tomorrow As It Shears Newd Immediately In Advance Of A Short Wave Trough Digging Sewd Across The Great Lakes And Ohio Valley. In The West...An Upper Low Over The Pacific Nw Is Expected To Remain Across The Region While An Upper Ridge Amplifies Over The Plains States.

At The Surface...A Low In The St. Lawrence Valley Is Expected To Lift Slowly Newd...As A Trailing Cold Front Moves Sewd From The Lower Great Lakes/Oh Valley/Mid-South Early In The Period Reaching The Atlantic Coast And Nrn Gulf Coast By 24/12z. The Wrn Portion Of The Front Will Extend Nwwd Into Nwrn Tx And The Rockies.

Nwrn Tx/Wrn Ok...

A Few Elevated Thunderstorms May Be Ongoing Early In The Period Over Parts Of Ok To The North Of The Aforementioned Frontal Boundary Extending Across Nwrn Tx. Associated Clouds/ Precipitation May Delay Stronger Diabatic Heating To The North Of The Front Resulting In An Enhancement Of The Thermal Gradient Attending The Front During The Afternoon. With Surface Dew Points In The 60s Along And North Of The Front Overlaid By Steep Mid Level Lapse Rates Associated With An Elevated Mixed Layer...The Environment Is Likely To Become Very Unstable With Mlcape Reaching 3000-3500 J/Kg. Although Dynamic Forcing For Large Scale Ascent Will Be Minimal Within The Upper Ridge...Low Level Convergence/Warm Advection Along And North Of The Front Coupled With Strong Heating Should Weaken The Cap Sufficiently For Widely Scattered Storms To Develop During The Mid/Late Afternoon.

Despite Modest Winds Aloft /25 Kt At 500 Mb/...Strong Directional Shear With Height Will Enhance Storm Organization With Potential For A Few Supercells To Develop. Stronger Cells Will Be Capable Of Producing Very Large Hail And Damaging Wind Gusts...With The Latter Threat Increasing If Storms Can Grow Upscale Into A Small Mcs And Move Ewd/Sewd During The Evening.

There Will Also Be Potential For A Tornado Or Two To Develop Especially During The Initial Phase Of Supercell Development. Activity Is Expected To Diminish In Intensity After 03-06z.

New England Swd Into Ern Nc...

Model Guidance Suggests That Clouds And Areas Of Precipitation Will Be Widespread Ahead Of The Cold Front Tomorrow Which Will Limit The Magnitude Of Diabatic Heating And Destabilization Across Much Of The Area...With Mlcape Generally Aob 1000 J/Kg. There Is Anticipation That Some Breaks In The Cloud Cover Will Permit Localized Regions To Undergo Greater Destabilization...But These Areas Are Difficult To Identify Attm.

As Stronger Swly Winds Aloft Overspread The Pre-Frontal Environment During The Day...There Will Be Potential For A Few Stronger Storms To Develop. However...Owing To Concerns About
The Effects Of Clouds And Ongoing Convection On Air Mass Stability ...Will Maintain The Current 5% Severe Probability Corridor From Ern Nc Into New England.

If It Becomes Evident Tomorrow That Zones Of More Pronounced Destabilization Will Occur...Portions Of The Area May Require An Upgrade To Slight Risk.

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