Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Thu Jan 17

Sern U.S...

Strong Forcing In Advance Of Ejecting Upper Low Will Spread Across
The Cntrl/Ern Gulf States Into The Carolinas Thursday As Intense Mid
Level 12hr Height Falls On The Order Of 210 M Develop Across
Al/Ga/Sc During The Day.

Models Suggest Weak Elevated Instability Will Develop Within Exit Region Of 100kt Speed Max And Shallow Convection...Likely Rooted Near 700mb...May Evolve.

Even So Forecast Soundings Suggest Cloud Depths May Not Penetrate Levels Necessary For Lightning Discharge.

Downstream Across Sern Ga/Sc...Boundary Layer Heating Will
Contribute To Steepening Low Level Lapse Rates/Instability Ahead Of
Progressive Cold Front. There Is Some Concern That Sfc Parcels Will
Attain Weak Buoyancy As Temperatures Warm Into The Lower 70s.

Given The Strong/Focused Ascent A Narrow Band Of Frontal Convection Will Likely Develop. Nam Forecast Sounding For Cae At 21z Exhibits Roughly 250 J/Kg Sbcape With El Levels Near 450mb...J ust Shy Of Minus 20c.

While An Isolated Lightning Strike Can Not Be Ruled Out It Appears The Probability For Tstms Will Remain Below 10 Percent This Period.


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