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Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Sun Sep 8

Nrn Plains...

An Upper-Level Trough Will Move Ewd Across The Nrn Rockies On Sunday As An Upper-Level Ridge Moves Ewd Across The Nrn Plains. At The Sfc...A Low Is Forecast To Deepen Across Sd As A Cold Front Advances Sewd Across The Nrn High Plains. A Corridor Of Low-Level Moisture Should Be In Place From Cntrl Sd Extending Nwwd Into Ern Mt Along Which Moderate Instability Should Develop By Sunday Afternoon.

The Models Suggest That Scattered Thunderstorms Will Initiate From The Sfc Low In Cntrl Sd Nwd Across Nd With Additional Storms Developing In The Post-Frontal Airmass Across The Nrn High Plains.

Forecast Soundings For 00z/Mon At Pierre And Mobridge Sd Show Mlcape In The 2000 To 2500 J/Kg Range With 35 To 40 Kt Of 0-6 Km Shear. This Should Support Supercell Development With Sfc-Based Storms That Can Become Established During The Late Afternoon And Early Evening. Mid-Level Lapse Rates Are Forecast To Be Steep Which Could Aid The Generation Of Large Hail. An Isolated Wind Damage Threat Will Also Be Possible.

The Main Uncertainty For This Forecast Is The Warm Air Aloft That Will Be In Place Across The Nrn Plains. At This Point...The Thinking Is That The Warm Air Aloft Will Be Partially Overcome By Large-Scale Ascent And Falling Mid-Level Heights Associated With The Approaching Upper-Level Trough. Low-Level Convergence Around The Sfc Low Should Also Help With Cell Initiation.


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