Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Sun Sep 15

An Upper Ridge Will Be Prevalent Over The Southeast Quadrant Of The Conus Sunday...While A Progressive Belt Of Amplified Westerlies
Persists Over Canada And The Northern Third Of The Conus. An Upper Trough Will Continue To Amplify/Spread East-Southeastward Over The Northeast States And New England...While An Additional Trough Overspreads The Pacific Northwest Sunday Night/Early Monday.

South-Central Plains...

Near A Southeastward-Moving Front...At Least Widely Scattered
Surface Based Tstms Are Expected To Develop/Increase Sunday
Afternoon Within A Southwest-Northeast Oriented Corridor Including
Southern/Eastern Ks Into Northern Ok/Mo. Although Vertical Shear
Will Be Modest /25-30 Kt Of Effective Shear/...Frontal Uplift And
Relatively Strong Heating With Upwards Of 1000-1500 J/Kg Mlcape
South Of The Front Could Allow For Isolated Severe Tstms Sunday
Afternoon/Early Evening. Localized Downbursts Would Be The Main Risk Given This Scenario...But A Pulse-Type Hail Risk Cannot Be Entirely Discounted.

Pacific Northwest...

Upper Trough And Associated Height Falls/Forcing For Ascent Are
Expected To Overspread The Region On Sunday...With An Afternoon
Increase Of Tstms Probable Especially Across Central/Eastern Ore
Into Wa/Id. While Only A Relatively Modest Amount Of Buoyancy
/Generally 500 J Per Kg Mlcape Or Less/ Is Expected Across The
Region...Sufficient Moisture In The Presence Of Very Steep/Diurnally
Maximized Lapse Rates And Strengthening Vertical Shear Suggest That Some Stronger/Possibly Severe Tstms Could Occur Sunday
Afternoon/Evening...With Wind/Hail Possible On An Isolated Basis.

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