Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Sun Oct 6

A Strong Upper Low Will Drift Ewd Through The Period With A Cold
Front Extending From Lower Mi Into Cntrl Ky/Tn By Midday.

A Moist Air Mass Will Reside Ahead Of The Front...And With Some Cooling Aloft...Sufficient Instability Is Expected For A Few Severe Storms With Strong Shear Profiles Overspreading The Area. Given The Slow Movement Of The Front...The Threat Area Should Be Relatively Narrow.

Elsewhere...What Is Left Of Tropical Storm Karen Will Affect Coastal
La/Ms/Al/Fl With A Conditional Threat Of A Few Severe Storms.

Oh...Ern Ind...Sern Lower Mi...Far Wrn Pa And Ny...

Moderate Deep-Layer Shear Will Exist Along The Behind The Advancing Cold Front...Where Rain And Storms Will Be Ongoing Early. Persistent Forcing Along This Boundary...Progged Hints Of A Wave Advancing Nwd Along The Front...And 35-40 Kt Mean Flow In The Lower Troposphere Suggest Some Damaging Wind Potential. A Brief Tornado Cannot Be Ruled Out As Well...Especially If Larger Nam Srh Verifies.

Farther E Into Wrn Pa And Ny...Better Heating Will Occur Which Will
Erode Cin. Wind Profiles In The Low Levels Will Be Somewhat Weak ...But A Isolated Strong Storms Could Occur With A Localized Wind Threat During The Afternoon.

Coastal Sern La Into Fl Panhandle...

Tropical Storm Karen Is Forecast To Move From Sern La Toward The Fl Panhandle Through The Period...And May Bring Heavy Rains And
Increasing Wind Fields.

Current Trends Suggest The Storm May Be Rather Weak When It Makes Land Fall. If The Storm Can Regenerate Some Deeper Convection...A Favorable Environment For A Few Short Lived Tornadoes Could Exist. For Now Will Maintain Low Wind/Tor Probs.


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