Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Sun Oct 13

Vigorous Shortwave Trough Now Entering The Pacific Nw Will Amplify
Sewd Into The Great Basin Sunday...Reaching The Cntrl Rockies Later Sunday Night.

In Association With This Feature...A Lee Cyclone Will Develop Over The Cntrl High Plains...While A Sfc Ridge Shifts Ewd Through The Great Lakes And Oh Valley. Warm Front Initially Across Ok And Nwrn Tx Sunday Morning Will Lift Slowly Nwd Into Ks By Sunday Evening ...While A Pacific Front Advances Through The Cntrl And Srn Rockies.

Cntrl Through Srn High Plains...

A Sly Llj Will Strengthen Across The Cntrl/Srn High Plains East Of
Developing Lee Low. The Resulting Warm Advection And Isentropic Lift Will Contribute To Widespread Clouds Sunday And Eventually Areas Of Showers And Thunderstorms North Of The Warm Front Sunday Night Across The Cntrl Plains.

Other Storms Will Likely Develop In The Weakly Capped Warm Sector Within The Newd Expanding Subtropical Moist Plume Across The Srn Plains. Despite Potential For Widespread Clouds...Modest Nwd Destabilization Is Expected Over The Cntrl High Plains In Association With Low-Level Moist Advection Attending The Advancing Warm Front.

Steeper Mid-Level Lapse Rates Should To Remain North And West Of The Warm Sector During The Day. However...A Narrow Corridor Of Diabatic Warming May Occur Sunday Afternoon From Ern Nm Through Ern Co Along Wrn And Nwrn Fringe Of Moist Axis With Mlcape Aob 1000 J/Kg Across Ern Nm And Below 500 J/Kg Over Ern Co Where Moisture Will Be More Limited...But Will Gradually Increase Overnight.

A Few Storms May Develop Over The Higher Terrain And Along The Lee Trough Axis During The Afternoon Into The Evening Primarily Across Ern Nm Into Se Co.

Vertical Shear Will Become Increasingly Favorable For Supercells As
Mid-Upper Flow Strengthens Ahead Of Upper Trough...And Some Of The Storms That Develop May Pose A Threat For Isolated Damaging Wind And Large Hail. Other Storms May Increase Farther Nwd Into Ern Co Overnight Within Zone Of Modest Theta-E Advection... Steepening Mid-Level Lapse Rates And Increasing Upper Divergence East Of The Progressive Upper Trough.

Some Of This Activity Might Become Capable Of Producing Isolated Hail...But A Stable Boundary Layer Should Provide A Limiting Factor For A More Robust Severe Threat. Lingering Uncertainty Regarding The Extent Of Daytime Clouds And Destabilization Along With Late Arrival Of The Upper Trough Preclude A Categorical Risk At This Time.

However...A Portion Of The Srn High Plains Might Need To Be Included In A Slight Risk In Later Outlooks.

Otherwise...Numerous Storms /Likely Elevated/ Should Develop Sunday Night From Ks Nwd Into Neb/Sd Within Zone Of Increasing Warm Advection And Isentropic Ascent Associated With The Strengthening Llj. Weak Instability Should Preclude A Severe Threat With This Activity.

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