Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Sun Nov 18

Synopsis...

Progressive And Generally Low-Amplitude Pattern Is Fcst Across Most
Of Conus Day-2. Stg Shortwave Trough -- Now Evident In Moisture
Channel Imagery Offshore Pac Nw -- Is Fcst To Move Ashore Day-1 Then Eject Newd Across Nrn Rockies And Downstream Parts Of Canada Day-2. Height Rises Will Occur Behind This Perturbation Through Most Of Period...Amidst Gen Cyclonic Flow Field Related To Large/Persistent Gulf Of Ak Vortex.

Broad/Weak Mid-Upper Cyclone Should Develop Over Sern Conus Day-1 From Trough Now Evident In Moisture Channel Imagery From Srn Appalachians To Central Gulf. Center Of Cyclone Will Move Offshore Nern Fl/Ga Coast Early In Period...Inducing Frontal-Wave Low Development Over Gulf Stream E Jax. Some Tstms May Develop Offshore Carolinas...Along And N Of Sfc Quasistationary Front Extending Newd From Low...But Potential For This Convection To Move Ashore Appears Too Low/Conditional For Tstm Outlook Attm.

Srn High Plains To Mo Valley...

Mrgl Tstm Broad Fetch Of Swly-Wswly Flow Aloft Will Characterize
Mid-Upper Levels Over This Region Throughout Period...With Very
Weak/Embedded Perturbations. Lee Troughing Is Expected From Wrn Sd Swd Across Ts/Nm Border Region By 19/00z...With Broad Low-Level Waa Regime To Its E. Sfc Moisture Will Remain Weak...However Increasing Rh Is Fcst Above Sfc -- Generally In 700-850 Mb Layer -- Along With Areas Of Both Stratiform And Convective Precip Moving Newd. Fcst Soundings Suggest Some Of This Activity May Produce Episodic/Isolated Thunder...With Around 100-250 J/Kg Mlcape And Some Buoyancy Occasionally Reaching Into -20 Deg C And Colder Thermal Zone.

Convection Is Expected Early In Period Over Srn Plains And After Dark Over Central Plains...Latter Being Associated With Mrgl Moisture And 35-45 Kt Sswly Llj. Some Spatial/Temporal Separation May Occur Between Each Regime...But Confidence In Location/Width Of Any Relative Min Is Too Low To Carve Two Distinct Tstm Outlook Areas Attm.


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