Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Sun May 5

In Mid-Upper Levels...Split-Flow Pattern Fcst To Continue Across Bulk Of North America Downstream From Nern Pac Rex Block. This Pattern Will Be Characterized By Very Distinct And Widely Separated
Nrn And Srn Streams Over Nrn Canada And Srn Conus/Nrn Mex
Respectively.

In Between...Two Cut-Off Lows Will Persist...
1. Cyclone Currently Developing Over Ozarks And Fcst To Move Slowly
From Mid-South Region Ewd Across Portions Tn Valley And Srn
Appalachians By 6/12z...And
2. Vorticity Maxima Now Digging Swd Across Interior Pac Nw And
Id...Fcst To Develop Closed Low Day-1 That Will Retrograde Swwd
Offshore Nrn Ca Day-2 And Remain There Through Period.

Quasistationary Mid-Upper Trough Will Extend From Pac Vortex Newd
Across Nrn Rockies Then Ewd Over Mt And Nd...While Ridging Dominates Pattern Over Central/Srn High Plains. As Pac Rex Bloc Breaks Down...Srn/Cyclonic Member Will Eject Enewd And Deamplify Into Open Wave...S Of Cut-Off Cyclone. This Feature Should Move Onshore Nrn Baja During 06/00z-06/06z Time Frame Then Enewd To Sern Az/Sern Nm/Sonora By 06/12z.

Sern Conus Cyclone Will Become Vertically Stacked As Sfc Low Now
Over Coastal E-Central Fl Moves/Redevelops Nwwd Along Baroclinic
Zone Across Ga And Occludes. As This Occurs...Frontal Zone And
Collocated Sfc Trough/Wind-Shift Line Will Move Slowly Newd... Offshore Fl And Across Coastal Ga/Sc.

Sern Conus...

Occlusion Process With Deep-Layer Cyclone Will Shunt Richest
Maritime Warm-Sector Air Well Offshore Sern Atlc Coast...With Wly
Flow Predominating W Of Front Across Fl And Srn/Central Ga.
However...Low-Level Waa And Moisture Transport Is Fcst Ne Of
Front...Leading To Considerable Clouds/Precip And Ocnl...Isolated To
Widely Scattered...Embedded Tstms Ne Of Front. Inland Distance Of
Gen Thunder Threat Is Very Nebulous...Given Meager Values Of Both
Elevated And Sfc-Based Buoyancy With Interior Extent From Atlc Coast.

Wrn Conus...

Isolated To Widely Scattered Tstms In Sporadic Pockets Are Expected
To Develop Across Broad Swath Of Intermountain W Into Coastal Ranges Diurnally. Largest Buoyancy May Develop Over Portions Extreme Nrn Ca And S-Central/Swrn Ore During Mid-Late Aftn...Where Moisture Supporting Lower-Elevation Sfc Dew Points 30s/40s F May Be Stgly Diabatically Heated...Beneath Steep Lapse Rates Aloft That Will Accompany Mid-Upper Trough. Accordingly Modified Arw-Kf Fcst
Soundings Yield Mlcape Exceeding 500 J/Kg...Albeit Beneath Weak Deep Shear. Some Of These Tstms May Produce Stg Gusts.

Overnight...
Tstm Potential Will Increase Within Nnw-Sse Aligned Corridor Of Nm And Far W Tx. Combination Of Low-Level Waa...Increasing 650-750 Mb Layer Moisture And Apchg Dcva Should Steepen Lapse Rates And Remove Enough Mucinh To Allow Potential For Deep Convection During Last Few Hours Of Period. Fcst Soundings Suggest Resultant 100-400 J/Kg Mucape Will Reach Into Favorable Icing Layers For Ltg By 06/12z.


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