Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Sun Mar 31

A Large Upper Low Will Remain Over Ontario With Broad Cyclonic Flow Aloft Covering Most Of The Cntrl And Ern Conus.

With Nwly Flow Aloft...A Weak Stationary Front Will Extend From Nwrn Tx Ewd Into Cntrl Ar Sunday Morning With 50s To Lower 60s F Boundary Layer Dewpoints South. This Air Will Interact With A Leading Embedded Shortwave Trough And Will Result In Rain And Storms From The Arklatex Into The Lower Ms Valley During The Day...While Stronger Storms Reform To The W Over Cntrl Tx By Afternoon.

Cntrl Tx...

Showers And Storms Are Likely To Be Ongoing Across The Red River
Region Into The Arklatex In The Morning Along The Front/Composite
Outflow. These Boundaries Are Forecast To Drift Swd...With Storms
Possibly Propagating Swd Across Tx. Strong Heating Over W Cntrl Tx
Should Aid In Storm Intensity Along The Wrn Fringe Of The Swd
Propagating Tx Storms...As Depicted By Several Models. Shear
Profiles Will Be Marginally Supportive Of A Few Supercells Given
Steep Lapse Rates And Moderate Instability...But Multicellular
Clusters Are Most Probable. Hail And Wind Will Be Possible.

Since Storm Coverage May Largely Depend On Previous Nights
Convection...Will Defer Any Slight Risk Upgrade To Later Outlooks As
Uncertainty Is High. At The Very Least...Isolated Severe Hail/Wind
Appears Probable Across Cntrl Tx.

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