Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Sun Mar 17

An Appreciably Strong Upper Level Trough Is Forecast To Move From
The Nrn Rockies Into The Nrn Plains With A Surface Low Migrating Ewd Across The Nrn Plains. A Pronounced Lee Trough Will Extend Swd Into The Srn High Plains Sunday Afternoon And Serve As A Focus For Diurnally Driven Isold Tstm Activity. These High-Based Storms Will Likely Develop During The Afternoon As Mid-High Level Flow And Large Scale Ascent Strengthen In Association With The Approaching Upper Trough. Despite Ample Surface Heating Yielding A Steep Lapse Rates...Meager Buoyancy Owing To Limited Boundary Layer Moisture /Dewpoints Only In The 20s-30s/ Will Act To Markedly Limit Storm Coverage/Intensity -- Precluding Low Severe Probabilities. Nonetheless...A Strong Wind Gust May Occur With The More Vigorous Convection Prior To Nocturnal Boundary Layer Stabilization.

Farther E From Ern Ok Into The Lower Oh Valley...A Smaller Scale
Upper Disturbance Is Forecast To Move From The Cntrl Plains To The
Upper Oh Valley. A Weak Surface Low Over The Srn Plains Will Slowly
Develop Newd Along A Front To The Lower Oh Valley By Monday Morning.

This Will In Turn Facilitate The Nwd Transfer Of 50s Dewpoints Into
The Lower Ms And Lower Oh Valleys. Sctd Tstms Are Forecast
Overnight From Nern Ar Into Ky/Tn Owing To An Intensifying 50 Kt Llj
Over Ky By Monday Morning. Forecast Soundings Show Several Hundred J/Kg Mucape...Supporting Weak Elevated Storms.


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