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Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Sun Jun 30

Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic/Nrn Appalachian Mtns...

An Upper-Level Trough Will Be In Place Across The Oh Valley And Mid
Ms Valley On Sunday With Southwest Flow Located Across The Atlantic Coastal States.

The Models Forecast Several Pockets Of Moderate Instability Sunday Afternoon From The Carolinas Extending Newd Into Pa. As Sfc Temps Warm...Scattered Thunderstorms Should Initiate Around Midday And Persist Through The Afternoon. In Areas Where
Moderate Instability Develops And Low-Level Lapse Rates Become
Steep...An Isolated Wind Damage Threat Will Be Possible. A Better
Chance Of An Organized Severe May Develop Across Pa Where The Models Also Show Moderate Deep Layer Shear Profiles. However... Any Severe Threat Will Likely Depend Upon How Much Destabilization Takes Place And How Many Storms Can Initiate. Considerable Uncertainty Remains For This Forecast And Will Go With Low-End Severe Probabilities.

Wcntrl Mt...

An Upper-Level Ridge Is Forecast Across The Nrn Rockies On Sunday. An Axis Of Moderate Instability May Develop Beneath The Ridge Across Wcntrl Mt Sunday Afternoon. Although Large-Scale Ascent Will Be Limited Across The Region...Any Storms That Can Initiate In The Higher Terrain Could Become Marginally Severe Due To The Instability Combined With Moderate Deep Layer Shear And Steep Mid-Level Lapse Rates. Hail And Strong Gusty Winds Would Be The Primary Threats.


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