Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Sun Jun 23

Central Plains To Upper Ms Valley...

Progressive Trough Is Expected To Shift Into The Upper Ms Valley
During The Late Afternoon Sunday As Mid Level Speed Max Ejects Into
Nwrn Mn By 24/00z. In Response To This Feature...Sfc Front Should
Become Oriented Along The Dakota/Mn Border By Peak Heating With A Fairly Substantial Pressure Surge Expected To Drive The Boundary
Into Wrn Ks/Ern Co. The Synoptic Front Should Serve As The Focus
For Robust Convection Through The Period.

At Daybreak Sunday...Veered Llj Should Prove Partly Responsible For
Continuation Of Late Day1 Thunderstorm Complex Across The Mid Mo Valley. Additional Tstms May Also Be Noted Across The Upper Ms
Valley Aided In Part By Approaching Trough. Latest Model Guidance
Suggests These Convective Complexes May Not Completely Dissipate Before Diurnal Heating/Destabilization Encourages Upward Development Downstream From Ia Into Sern Mn/Wrn Wi. Forecast Shear Profiles Favor Multi-Cell Updrafts And A Few Supercells...With Substantial Instability More Than Adequate For Hail/Damaging Winds.

Later In The Day Across The High Plains...Strong Boundary Layer
Heating Across Ern Co/Sern Wy Into The Neb Panhandle Will Prove
Instrumental In Strong/Severe Thunderstorm Development. Upslope
Component Is Expected To Become More Favorable During The Day And Substantial Veering Will Be Noted Within The Profiles Across This
Region. While Mid Level Flow Is Not Expected To Be Very Strong ...500mb Aob 25kt...Slow Moving Supercells Are Expected.

Convection That Develops Across The High Plains May Evolve Into An Mcs During The Evening Hours As Complex Of Storms Migrates Into Wrn Ks. With Llj Expected To Increase After Dark Over Ks This Activity
Should Propagate Toward The Mo River By Sunrise Monday Morning.

Nern U.S...

Upper Ridging Will Favor Moisture Return Across The Oh Valley/ Middle Atlantic Into Upstate Ny/Nrn New England During The Day2 Period.

With Instability Expected To Increase There Is Reason To Believe A
Few Tstms Could Develop During The Heat Of The Day Despite The Lack Of Any Identifiable Disturbance Or Short-Wave Trough.

Latest Guidance Suggests A Zone Of Weak Low Level Confluence Across The Hudson Valley Into Srn Qb May Provide The Focus For Convection. Weak Deep Layer Shear Suggests Gusty Winds Or Perhaps Marginally Severe Hail Is Possible. This Activity Will Be Diurnally Driven And Weaken With Loss Of Daytime Heating.


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