Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Sun Jun 2

Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States And New England...

A Mid/High Level Speed Max...With 50-65 Kt Southwesterly Winds
Around 500 Mb...Is Expected To Shift Northeastward Over The
Northeast States/New England On The Periphery Of An Upper Trough
Pivoting Over Ontario/Quebec. While Early Day Showers/Some Tstms Are Likely To Accompany The Eastward-Moving Cold Front...Cloud Breaks And Pockets Of At Least Modest Destabilization Are Probable Ahead Of The Front /And In Vicinity Of A Possible Pre-Frontal Trough/. Weak Mid-Level Lapse Rates May Temper The Overall Degree Of
Destabilization And Storm Vigor To Some Degree...But Even So... Mlcape On The Order Of 1000-1500 J/Kg Will Be Sufficient For
Strong/Severe Tstm Development And Intensification Into The
Afternoon.

Under The Influence Of The Passing Speed Max...Strong Deep Layer
Southwesterly Winds...Accentuated By As Much As 40-50 Kt Between 2-6 Km...Will Support The Development And Maturation Of Organized/ Sustained Clusters Of Storms Including Bows...Especially During The Afternoon/Early Evening Hours. Damaging Winds Will Be The
Primary Hazard...Although Some Severe Hail And Perhaps An Isolated
Tornado Threat /Mainly Eastern Ny Into New England/ May Exist As
Well.

Eastern Nm/Southwest Tx...

Moist Southeasterly Upslope Trajectories Are Expected Across The
Region With Moisture Increasing/Shifting West-Northwestward Into
Southwest Tx And Parts Of Eastern/Central Nm On Sunday. While
Mid-Level Flow /2-6 Km/ Will Be Relatively Weak...Stronger
High-Level Westerlies In Conjunction With Veering Wind Profiles May
Yield As Much As 35-40 Kt Of Effective Shear...Which Will Be
Sufficient For Multicells/Some Supercells Given Relatively High
Moisture Content And Moderate Potential Instability. Large Hail And
Perhaps An Isolated Tornado Will Be The Primary Hazards During The Afternoon/Evening...With Storms Potentially Expanding A Bit Eastward Into/Across The High Plains Sunday Night.

Central Mt...

Ahead Of An East-Southeastward Moving Shortwave Trough Over The
Northern Intermountain Region...Convergence In Vicinity Of Surface
Low/Associated Frontal Boundary As Well The Influence Of Terrain
Will Likely Contribute To Tstm Development Especially Sunday
Afternoon/Evening. While Moisture/Destabilization Will Likely Be
Limited...Sufficiently Steep Lapse Rates/Strengthening Vertical
Shear May Account For A Limited Severe Potential With Hail/Gusty
Winds Possible With A Few Of The Storms.


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