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Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Sun Jun 16

Primarily Zonal Flow Regime Will Become Somewhat More Amplified By Early Mon As A Shortwave Trough Over The Prairie Provinces Evolves Into Two Distinct Impulses...One Shifting Into The Upper Ms Valley And The Other Progressing Ewd Across Srn Ontario/Quebec.

A Weakening Cold Front Should Cross The Great Lakes...With Trailing Portion Remaining Quasi-Stationary And W/E-Oriented Back Toward The Sd/Neb Border. Outflow Boundaries Will Likely Be Present S Of The Frontal Zone In The Wake Of D1 Convection.

Cntrl Plains...

A Persistent Wly Mid-Level Flow Regime Will Allow For Continued
Advection Of An Eml And Steep Mid-Level Lapse Rates Overspreading
The Plains. A Moderate To Strongly Unstable Air Mass Will Likely
Develop During The Afternoon Amidst Surface Dew Points In The Middle 50s To Middle 60s. Although Mid-Level Height Change Should Remain Neutral And Low-Level Winds Will Likely Be Weak...Favorable
Upper-Level Diffluence Should Aid In Fostering Isolated To Scattered
Tstms Forming Off The Higher Terrain And Perhaps Along The
Stationary Front Or Outflows From D1 Convection.

Sufficient Higher-Level Flow Will Exist For A Few Supercells Producing Primarily Large Hail. Setup Does Appear To Favor Potential For A Congealing/Modest-Moving Mcs With At Least An Isolated Risk For Severe Wind Into Sun Night.

Mid-Ms Valley To The Northeast...

Scattered Elevated Convection Will Likely Be Ongoing From The Mid-Ms Valley To The Lower Great Lakes Within A Broad Low-Level Waa Regime In Association With A Progressive Shortwave Impulse Crossing Sern Canada. Poor Mid-Level Lapse Rates Will Limit Instability...But Pockets Of Downstream Surface Heating May Yield Weak Destabilization During The Day.

Moderately Strong Unidirectional Flow Fields May Support A Marginal Severe Threat Developing E Of The Nrn/Cntrl Appalachians.

In The Wake Of The Waa-Driven Convection...Destabilization Will Be
Much More Pronounced With Advection Of A Rich Gulf Moisture Plume
And Abundant Insolation. However...With Weakening Low-Level
Convergence Along A Decaying Cold Front And Mid-Level Drying... Prospects For Tstm Initiation Appear Slim Along The Periphery Of Strong Mid-Level Wlys. More Probable Tstm Development Should Occur Along Remnant Outflow Boundaries...Which Should Be
Well-Divorced From The Stronger Flow Aloft. Thus...Will Maintain A
Broad Low Probability For A Marginal Wind/Hail Risk.

Upper Ms Valley...

Although Low-Level Moisture Will Be Much Limited Relative To Farther
S...Steepening Lapse Rates May Yield Weak Buoyancy Ahead Of The
Shortwave Trough Approaching From The Prairie Provinces. Beneath A 50 Kt Mid-Level Jet...Unidirectional Wind Profiles Will Result In
Straight-Line Hodographs Favoring Potential For Marginally Severe
Hail And Locally Damaging Winds.


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