Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Sun Jul 28

Models Continue To Indicate That The Center Of A Large Mid-Level
Closed Low Will Begin To Gradually Shift To The Northeast Of The
Great Lakes Region During This Period. In Its Wake...Generally Weak
Zonal Flow Is Expected Across The Great Basin And Central Rockies ...Through The Central Plains...Between Remnant Low Amplitude Cyclonic Flow Near The Western And Central Canadian/U.S. Border Area And Subtropical Ridging Centered Over The Northern Mexican Plateau. Flow Likely Will Remain Cyclonic As Far South Of The Gulf And South Atlantic Coast States Sunday...But Mid-Level Heights Appear Likely To Rise Through Most Areas East Of The Mississippi Valley.

A Plume Of Seasonably High Precipitable Water May Linger Across Much Of The Atlantic Seaboard Through The Day...Before Significant Drying Advances From The Eastern Slopes Of The Appalachians Into Coastal Areas Sunday Night.

Farther West...A Southerly Low-Level Return Flow Is Expected To Contribute To Moistening Across The Southern Into Central Plains... Northward Through The Northern High Plains.

But...South Of The Northern High Plains...Mid-Level Lapse Rates
Appear Likely To Remain Generally Weak East Of The Rockies. Peak
Afternoon Mixed Layer Cape Is Forecast To Become Only Weak To Modest In Magnitude Across Most Areas...Including The Intermountain West And Rockies.

Sufficient Destabilization Should Occur To Support At Least Scattered Thunderstorm Activity Across The Great Basin...Much Of The
Rockies...Adjacent High Plains And Lower Central Plains...As Well As
The Gulf And Atlantic Coast States. The Risk For Severe Storms May
Not Be Completely Negligible...But Any Pockets Of Stronger
Destabilization And Vertical Shear Appear Likely To Remain Too
Localized For Even 5 Percent Severe Probabilities.


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