May 18, 2013
Minimal Potential For Tstms Over Much Of The Conus Should Continue Through D2.
Large-Scale Mid-Level Ridge Will Persist Along The Pacific Coast... While A Trough Remains In The East Although Dampening Somewhat In Amplitude Compared To D1.
Weak Short Wave Impulses Are Expected To Progress E/Sewd Between The Ridge/Trough Across The Plains.
N-Cntrl Tx To Ozark Plateau...
Low-Level Waa Will Ensue Sun Night Which Should Yield Isolated To
Scattered Showers Forming By 12z/Mon In Parts Of The Region.
The 00z Nam Remains A Distinct Outlier Compared To All 21z Sref Members And The 00z Ecmwf/Gfs With Depicting Mucape Around 250 J/Kg Centered Over N-Cntrl Ok. This Appears To Be A Result Of The Nam Depicting Cooler Mid-Level Temperatures/Steeper Lapse Rates And Higher Pw Values Farther N Compared To Other Guidance.
Model Consensus Suggests Elevated Buoyancy Would Remain Minimal And Preclude Adequate Charge Separation For Isolated Tstms.
Along With Only Moderate Confidence Over Where Showers Would Actually Develop...A Tstm Highlight Does Not Appear Warranted Attm.
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