Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Sun Feb 24

Upper Trough Dropping Into The Pacific Nw Will Amplify Sewd Into
The Cntrl/Srn Rockies By Early Sunday...Continuing Through The
Cntrl/Srn Plains And Reaching The Lower/Mid Ms Valley Sunday Night.

Sfc Low Will Form In Association With The Trough Initially Over The
Srn High Plains Before Developing Ewd Through Ok/Nrn Tx.

Trailing Cold Front Will Sweep Ewd Through The Srn Plains...While A Warm Front Lifts Through The Nrn Gulf...Possibly Moving Onshore Of The Gulf Coastal States Later Sunday Night.

Gulf Coastal Area...

Gradient Between Retreating Sfc Ridge Over The Oh And Tn Valleys And Developing Lee Low Will Promote Increasing Sly Boundary Layer Winds Across The Nrn Gulf Region.

Warm Front Residing Over The Cntrl Gulf Early In The Period Will Gradually Lift Nwd...Possibly Reaching Shore Later Sunday Night.

The Destabilizing Influence Of Low Level Theta-E Advection Regime And Isentropic Ascent North Of The Warm Front Will Likely Promote Development Of Widespread Convection In Cool Sector.

Weak Instability And The Elevated Nature Of The Convection Suggest Any Severe Risk Should Remain Low During The Afternoon/Evening.

However...Convection Developing Along Or Just South Of The Warm Front Will Be Rooted Close Enough To Sfc Layer To Warrant Some Concern For Updraft Rotation And At Least A Marginal Threat For A Tornado Or Two Later Sunday Night.

Likelihood Of Weak Instability And Uncertainty Regarding How Far The Warm Sector Can Develop Inland Precludes More Than 5% Severe Probabilities At This Time.

Wrn And Cntrl Ok Through Ncntrl And Cntrl Tx...

Modified Cp Air Will Return Through Srn Plains Warm Sector Within
Sly Flow Regime East Of The Developing Lee Low.

Insufficient Time Will Exist For Substantial Moisture Return...And Instability Will Remain Marginal As A Result.

However...Band Of Low Topped Storms May Develop From Ok Swd Through Nwrn And Cntrl Tx Later Sunday Afternoon/Evening Within Zone Of Deep Frontal Forcing And Divergence Aloft Downstream From The Progressive Upper Trough.

Despite The Scant Moisture...Cold Air Aloft And Boundary Layer Warming Might Support Sufficient Lapse Rates And Instability For A Marginal Threat For Strong Convective Wind Gusts And Hail.

Have Introduced A 5% Severe Coverage Area...But It Still Appears The Expected Marginal Thermodynamic Environment Should Serve As An Overall Limiting Factor.


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