Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Sun Feb 17

Models Indicate That The Amplified Upper Trough...Now Progressing
Through The Eastern U.S...Will Deamplify And Shift East Northeast Of
The Atlantic Coast During This Forecast Period.

This Is Expected To Occur As A Series Of Upstream Troughs Begin To Take Shape Within A Split Belt Of Westerlies Emerging From The Mid Latitude Pacific.

One Appears Likely To Gradually Form Across And To The East Of The
Rockies...While Another Evolves Over The Northeast Pacific. At The
Same Time...Strong Mid/Upper-Level Westerlies Emerging From The
Subtropical Eastern Pacific Appear Likely To Linger In A Zonal Belt
Across The Mexican Plateau/Lower Rio Grande Valley And Northern Gulf Of Mexico/Gulf Coast Region. Some Interaction Of This Feature And The Upper Trough Developing Across The Plains Appears Possible By The End Of The Period.

Considerable Strengthening Of Southerly Low-Level Flow Is Still
Forecast Across The Southern Plains Into The Lower Missouri Valley
Sunday Night...Ahead Of A Cold Front Of Pacific Origins Advancing To
The Southeast Of The Central Rockies. A Branch Could Extend As Far South As The Lower Texas Coast By 12z Monday.

However...With Much Of The Northwestern Gulf Of Mexico Only Slowly Beginning To Recover In The Wake Of Recent Drying...And Substantive Moisture Return From Southwestern Gulf Basin Not Yet Likely To Even Reach Lower Texas Coastal Areas...Destabilization Supportive Of An Appreciable Risk For Thunderstorms Is Not Expected During This Period.


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