May 24, 2013
Sern Tx To Lower Ms Valley...
Upstream Height Falls Across The Interior Nrn Rockies Will Prove
Instrumental In Forcing Swrn U.S. Upper Low To Eject Into The Cntrl
Plains Early In The Period.
While The Strongest Forcing Will Spread Across The Upper/Mid Ms Valley Region In Association With A Strong Mid Level Speed Max...Substantial Mid-High Level Flow Will Overspread Sern Tx Into The Cntrl Gulf States Where 500mb Speeds Should Exceed 70kt.
In Fact...A Weak Mid Level Impulse/Short-Wave Trough May Be Embedded Within Low Latitude Air Current Which Could Enhance Organizational Potential Of Convection That Develops Across The Warm Sector.
Latest Guidance Strongly Suggests Trailing Cold Front/Pre-Frontal
Trough Will Advance To A Position From Sern Ok Into Cntrl Tx At The
Beginning Of The Period.
Tstms Will Likely Be Ongoing At Sunrise Along This Wind Shift Which Should In Part Aid Ewd Displacement Of Effective Boundary Into The Lower Ms Valley During The Day.
Favorable Sustained Low Level Trajectories Should Allow Mid 60s Sfc
Dew Points To Advance Across Sern Tx Across La Into Ms Which Should Yield Sbcape On The Order Of 800-1000 J/Kg. Given The Strong Deep Layer Shear And Warm Advection Profiles There Is Little Doubt Early Morning Convection Should Progress/Develop Ewd Across The Arklatex Toward Ms By Early Evening.
If Mid Level Feature Proves Significant Then A Few Supercells May Evolve. Otherwise...Multiple Thunderstorm Clusters Could Evolve Into An Mcs-Type Feature Along A Corridor From Ecntrl Tx Toward Ms.
Forecast Instability Would Suggest Hail Will Be Marginally Severe But Strongly Sheared/Moist Profiles Do Favor Isolated Tornadoes With More Discrete Echoes In Addition To The Potential For Locally Damaging Winds.
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