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Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Sun Aug 25

Large Scale Pattern Is Expected To Change Slowly Over The Next Few
Days With Primary Feature Being A Dominant Upper High Pressure
System Anchored Over The Mid Ms Valley. Several Convective
Corridors Are Expected To Extend Around The Periphery Of This Large
Scale Feature...Namely Across The Gulf Coast...Interior West And
Invof The Great Lakes.

Upper Ms Valley/Great Lakes...

While Latest Short-Range Guidance Is Fairly Consistent Regarding The Large Scale Features 00z Gfs Is A Bit Quicker With Short-Wave
Trough/Speed Max Topping The Cntrl U.S. Ridge Over Wrn Ontario And Subsequent Esewd Movement Toward Wrn Qb By Early Evening Than The Nam. This Quicker Solution Will Result In A Slightly More Veered Boundary Layer Across The Upper Ms Valley/Great Lakes And Perhaps Weaker Convergence Within The Boundary Layer Along Wind Shift From Mn Into The U.P. Of Mi.

Low Level Warm Advection Will Likely Prove Responsible For Early
Morning Convection Along Nose Of Llj...Centered Over Lake Superior/ U.P. Of Mi. This Activity Should Translate Downstream Into Ontario Ahead Of Aforementioned Short-Wave. In Its Wake There Is Some Doubt How Much Convection Will Ultimately Develop Along The Weak Wind Shift Where Low Level Flow Will Veer But Enhance Boundary
Layer Warming...Especially Across Mn Where Sfc Temperatures May Soar Into The Mid-Upper 90s South Of The Wind Shift.

Although The Latest Nam Forecast Soundings Suggest Sfc Temperatures May Approach 100f Over Portions Of Srn Mn Convective Temperatures May Only Be Approached And Not Breached By 22z. For This Reason Have Opted To Maintain 5 Percent Severe Probs For The Possibility Of Isolated Thunderstorms Evolving Within The Heat Of The Late Afternoon Along Poorly Convergent Wind Shift.

Another Scenario May Prove More Likely With Storms Developing Across Wrn Ontario Then Propagating Sewd Across Lake Superior Toward The U.P. Of Mi/Nrn Lower Mi Along Nern Plume Of Strong Cap. Given That Modest Buoyancy/Shear Will Exist Across This Region...If Sufficient Storm Coverage Evolves There May Be A Need For Higher Severe Probs. Uncertainty Demands Lower Probs At This Time.

Elsewhere...

Wwd Moving Topical Disturbances Will Continue To Aid Diurnally
Enhanced Convection Along The Gulf Coast Sunday And Seasonally Moist Interior West Will Remain Convectively Active As Well. Although A Few Microbursts May Be Noted Severe Coverage Should Remain Too Sparse To Warrant Probs At This Time.


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