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Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Sun Aug 18

Trough Over The Ern Conus Will Deamplify During The Forecast
Period...While A Closed Upper Low Remains Positioned Off The Coast Of Cntrl Ca. Meanwhile...Weak Shortwave Trough Will Move From The Nrn High Plains Into The Upper Ms Valley. Surface Low Pressure Will Develop With This Feature Over The Wrn Dakotas... With A Lee Trough Extending Swd Into The Cntrl High Plains...And A Frontal Boundary Located From Nd Into Srn Manitoba. Farther S...An Area Of Low Pressure Over The Wrn Gulf Of Mexico Will Drift Wwd Toward The Tx Gulf Coast During Sunday Night.

Portions Of The Nrn/Cntrl High Plains Into Nwrn Mn...

Plume Of Steep Midlevel Lapse Rates Will Spread Ewd Across Surface Dewpoints In The 60s Over The Cntrl/Nrn Plains On Sunday...Which Will Yield Mlcape Values Aoa 2000 J/Kg As Strong Heating Takes Place During The Afternoon. Weak Mid/Upper-Level Impulse Will Move Across The Area By Evening...Which Will Aid In Thunderstorm Initiation Along A Lee Trough Over The Cntrl/Nrn High Plains...And Also Along A Frontal Boundary Extending Newd From Nd Into Srn Manitoba. The Favorable Thermodynamic Environment Combined With 0-6 Km Bulk Shear From 30-40 Kt Will Support An Isolated Severe Threat During The Afternoon And Evening.

Coastal Locations Of Sern Tx And Srn La...

Area Of Low Pressure Over The Wrn Gulf Of Mexico Is Forecast To
Drift Toward The Tx Gulf Coast During The Forecast Period. As This
Occurs...Low-Level Shear Profiles Will Strengthen From Srn La Early
In The Day...To Coastal Locations Of Sern Tx By Night...Which Could
Support Rotation With Showers And Storms Moving Onshore. Severe
Probabilities May Need To Be Introduced In Future Outlooks.


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