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Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Sun Aug 11

Large Scale Pattern Will Remain Relatively Amplified Over The Conus
Into Sunday. An Upper Low Will Continue To Move Generally Northward Along The Coast Of The Pacific Northwest...While Upper
Trough Amplification Occurs Over The Great Lakes.

High Plains/Middle Mo Valley...

To The East Of The Rockies Upper Ridge...Modestly Strong
West-Northwesterly Flow Aloft Will Exist Over Much Of The Plains.
There Will Be The Potential For Early Day/Ongoing Showers And Tstms Across The Middle Mo Valley...But The Primary Scenario Will Be For Afternoon/Early Evening Development Along/Immediately North Of A Central High Plains Surface Low And Angling Frontal Zone As Well As A High Plains Surface Trough.

Near-Trough/Frontal Forcing...Upslope Trajectories...And Moderate Instability /1000-2500 J Per Kg Mlcape/ Will Contribute To The Development Of Strong/Severe Tstms Sunday Afternoon.

Modest Vertical Shear Will Allow For Sustained Multicells And Perhaps A Few Supercells With Severe Hail/Wind Possible.

The Relatively Highest Confidence/Probability For Any Severe Tstms
Should Be Across West-Central Portions Of Neb/Ks And Perhaps Far
Eastern Wy/Far Western Sd...Although Modest Overall Forcing And Weak Vertical Shear /30 Kt Or Less Effective/ Precludes A Categorical
Slight Risk At This Time.

Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies...

In Association With The Near-Coastal/Northward-Moving Upper Low ...Forcing For Ascent And Cool Temperatures Aloft/Stronger
Mid-Level Westerlies Will Continue To Overspread East-Central
Portions Of Ore/Wa Into Northern Id Sunday. At Least A Few Strong /Potentially Severe Tstms Will Be Possible Mainly Sunday Afternoon /Early Evening In Areas Such As Eastern Wa/Far Northeast Ore Into Far Northern Id/Northwest Mt...With Hail/Wind Possible.

Other More Isolated Tstms...A Few Possibly Severe...May Also Develop Into Additional Parts Of Central/Southeast Mt Within The
Moist/Instability Axis Focused Near/Northeast Of The Mountains... Although Deep Layer Shear Will Be Modest /30 Kt Or Less/.

Tn Valley To Carolinas...

Very Subtle Height Falls May Occur Over The Region On The Southern
Fringes Of Stronger Cyclonic Westerlies Aloft...With A Belt Of
Somewhat Stronger Westerlies From The Southern Appalachians To
Va/Nc.

While The Exact Degree/Spatial Locations Of Stronger Destabilization Are A Bit Uncertain...At Least A Few Stronger/ Potentially Severe Tstms Will Again Be Possible Within A Moist/ Modestly Unstable Environment. Downbursts Capable Of Localized
Wind Damage May Be Sporadically Possible Sunday Afternoon.


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