An Upper-Level Trough Will Amplify Across The West While A Series Of Subtle/Low-Amplitude Mid-Level Impulses Emanate From The Rockies Across The Plains Within A Quasi-Zonal Flow Regime.
At The Surface...A Quasi-Stationary Front Should Lie Across The
Midwest...With Wrn Portion Of This Boundary Attempting To Advance
Nwd As A Warm Front In The Cntrl Plains. Dryline Will Mix Into The
Tx Big Country Sun Afternoon Arcing Nwwd To A Lee Cyclone Invof Tx
Low-Level Moisture Will Continue To Increase Beneath A Stout Eml... Likely Yielding 50s Surface Dew Points Along The Dryline/Quasi-Stationary Frontal Zone By Sun Late Afternoon. Guidance Does Indicate Lower To Perhaps Middle 60s Surface Dew Points Will Develop Ahead Of The Dryline From Cntrl Ok Swd To The Wrn Gulf.
Although The Presence Of A Strong Cap Will Limit The Depth Of The Pbl And Mixing Of Drier Air Aloft...Much Of The Gulf Has Experienced Substantial Drying In The Wake Of A Recent Cold Front Passage.
Richer Moisture Is Now Confined To The Caribbean Per Goes Pw Data...With Only A Narrow Plume Of Near 60 Surface Dew Points
Along The Mexico Gulf Coast. As Such...Suspect That Guidance Is
Overly Aggressive With The Amplitude Of Low-Level Moisture Return By Sun Afternoon.
Diurnal Tstm Development Will Likely Be Tied To A Couple Of Subtle
Low-Amplitude Impulses Embedded Within The Moderately Strong
Mid-Level Flow Regime And Increasing Low-Level Waa Along The
Majority Of Guidance Appear To Key On Ks As The Most Probable Area Of Convective Development Where The Cap Will Be Weaker.
The Nwrn Periphery Of The Low-Level Moisture Plume Invof Swrn/ Cntrl Ks Would Appear Most Favorable For Large Hail With A Steep Mid-Level Lapse Rate/Strong Deep-Layer Shear Environment. This Threat Will Be Increasingly Conditional With Srn Extent With Only A Narrow Spatial Corridor Of Weaker Mlcin Along The Dryline And Pronounced Capping To The E.
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