Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Sun Apr 28

Zonal Flow Will Strengthen Across Northwest Portions Of The Conus
Through The Weekend As A Short Wave Trough Moves From The Gulf Of Ak Across Bc/Ab And Produces Height Falls From Wa To Nwrn Mt Through Early Monday.

A Leading Low-Amplitude Disturbance Will Cross The Pac Nw/Nrn Rockies Through Day 1...And Support A Weak Cold Front Spreading From The Nrn Plains To Upper Ms Valley Through Day 2.

Generally Weaker Deep-Layer Flow Will Exist Across The Srn 2/3rds Of The Conus. A Compact But Vigorous Short Wave Trough Will Translate East From The Srn Plains To Mid/Lower Ms And Tn Valleys On Saturday. This Trough Will Decelerate And Amplify Somewhat Across The Tn Valley And South On Sunday While Upper Ridging Persists Along The Ern Seaboard.

Tn Valley South And Southwest To Upper Tx Coast...

Lift Associated With The Mid/Upper Wave And Weak Height Falls Will
Act On A Moist Airmass Across The Lower Ms And Tn Valleys To Support Numerous Tstms On Sunday.

It Seems Reasonable To Expect A Narrowing Plume Of Steep Mid Level Lapse Rates Will Accompany The Upper Trough Ewd From The Srn Plains To Ms Valley. This Elevated Mixed Layer Plume Could Contribute To Greater Destabilization East Of The Ms River.

However...As The Trough Slows And Convection And Clouds Persist And Tend To Limit Surface Heating...Only Weak Destabilization Is Indicated Over Ms/Al And Ga In Latest Guidance.

Furthermore...Low Level Parcel Trajectories Emanating From Cool/ Dry Ern U.S. Surface Ridge May Hinder Greater Destabilization Over Ga And Into Ern Al. Unidirectional Shear Over The South Is Forecast To Be Sufficient For Linear Storm Organization. If Greater Surface
Destabilization Can Be Realized A Low Probability Threat For
Damaging Winds May Develop. However...Overall Severe Potential
Should Remain Limited By Lack Of Greater Instability.

Stronger Heating Is Expected Farther West Along The Weak Wind Shift Boundary Associated With The Mid/Upper Trough. This May Occur Coincident With The Remnant Mid Level Lapse Rate Plume And Contribute To Potentially Strong Destabilization Over Parts Of La
And East Tx. While Forcing For Ascent Will Likely Be Weakening Over
These Areas Through Sunday Afternoon...Any Isolated Storm
Development That Can Occur Along The Residual Boundary Could Pose A Threat For Both Large Hail And High Winds.

Nm/West Tx...

Residual Wind Shift In The Wake Of The Ms Valley Short Wave Trough
Will Decay Across Scntrl/West Tx With Sely Low Level Upslope Flow
Returning To The Srn High Plains Beneath Weak Nwly Flow Aloft.

Despite Only Modest Low Level Moisture...Heating And Steep Lapse
Rates Will Contribute To Strong Destabilization And Weakening
Inhibition By Afternoon. Terrain And Mesoscale Boundaries Should
Support Relatively High-Based Storm Initiation With Directional
Shear In The Cloud-Bearing Layer Supporting Isolated Longer-Lived
Updrafts Capable Of Producing Hail And Gusty Downdrafts.

Lack Of Stronger Ascent And Focusing Mechanisms Should Keep Severe Storm Coverage Quite Isolated.


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