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Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Sun Apr 21

Broadly Cyclonic/Amplified Upper Flow Regime Will Persist Over The
Conus Through Sunday. One Shortwave Trough Will Spread Eastward Over The Southeast Conus...While A More Substantial Upper Trough/Polar Jet Advances East-Southeastward Over The Central Canadian Prairies And Northern Conus Rockies/Northern Plains.

Fl Peninsula...

Surface Front Will Have Stalled/Weakened Into Sunday Across The
Southern Half Of The Fl Peninsula...With A Relatively Moist Airmass
Remaining In Place. Temperatures Aloft Are Expected To Gradually
Cool /To Around -10c Or -11c At 500 Mb/ Via An Amplifying Upstream
Trough...And Tstms Should Increase During The Afternoon With Aid Of
Sea Breeze Circulations And A Moist/Weakly Capped Boundary Layer.

While Some Small Hail And/Or Strong Wind Gusts May Be Possible
During The Afternoon...Persistence Of Relatively Weak Lapse Rates
Aloft And Marginal Overall Buoyancy Should Preclude The Need For Low Severe Probabilities.

Central Plains/Middle Mo Valley/Midwest...

Under The Influence Of Amplifying Cyclonic Flow Aloft...A Cold Front
Is Expected To Generally Move Southeastward Across The Region On
Sunday. Given Current/Short Term Trajectories In Wake Of Recent
Frontal Passage...Very Limited Moisture Return Is Expected Within
The Warm Sector Ahead Of The Front...With Middle/Upper 40s F Surface Dewpoints At Best Across The Middle Mo Valley Vicinity By Around Peak Heating Sunday.

Even So...Relatively Steep Lapse Rates May Account For Sufficient Destabilization For Isolated Tstm Development Along The Front Across The Middle Mo Valley/Midwest During The Afternoon/Early Evening Hours. Other More Isolated Tstms Could Also Occur Farther West Across Portions Of Wy Into Co/Western Neb. Into Sunday Evening/Night...Tstms May Be Possible Across Additional Portions Of The Central Plains...Such As Neb/Parts Of Ks. This Will Be As A Strengthening Low Level Jet Impinges On The Southeastward Advancing Frontal Zone.

While Some Hail Potential Cannot Be Entirely Discounted Sunday
Afternoon/Night Given Cool Thermal Profiles Aloft...Overall Limited
Nature Of Available Moisture And Weak Buoyancy /300-500 J Per Kg
Sbcape At Most/ Suggest That Any Hail Is Likely To Remain Sub-Severe /Less Than 1 Inch In Diameter/.


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