Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Sun Apr 14

Srn Ks/Nrn Ok/Mid Ms Valley...

Strong Height Falls Will Spread Across The Nrn Plains Into The Upper
Ms Valley Sunday In Advance Of Upper Trough That Will Translate To A
Position From The Ern Dakotas Into Nrn Ks By 15/00z.

Associated Cold Front Is Expected To Advance To Near The Upper Ms River By Late Afternoon...Trailing Swwd Across Nrn Mo To Near The Ks/Ok Border.

Primary Concern During The Day2 Period Will Be The Degree Of
Boundary Layer Moistening Ahead Of The Cold Front. Latest Model
Guidance Suggests Upper 50s Dewpoints Should Advance Nwd Across The Srn Plains Into Srn Ks Along Trailing Portions Of The Wind Shift. Given The Expected Steep Lapse Rate Environment...Due To Strong Boundary Layer Heating Across Nwrn Ok...There Is Reason To Believe Minimal Inhibition Will Exist By 22z Along The Cold Front And Local Convergence Should Prove More Than Adequate For Convective Development.

With Srn Fringe Of Mid Level Speed Max Expected To Extend Into Nrn Ok Deep Layer Shear Will Support Organized Rotating Updrafts. Latest Nam Forecast Sounding For Enid At 14/22z Exhibits Sbcape On The Order Of 2000 J/Kg With A Sfc T/Td Of 79/58. This Seems Reasonable And Isolated Strong/Severe Thunderstorms Should
Evolve Where Moisture Axis Impinges On Cold Front.

Subsequent Movement/Development Should Occur Into Sern Ks Aided In Part By Surging Cold Front. While Shear Profiles Support Supercells There May Be Some Propensity For Cold Front To Undercut Updrafts And Large Hail/Damaging Winds Should Be The Primary Severe Threats.

Convection Should Also Develop Along Stronger Forced Portions Of The Cold Front Across Mo Into Ern Ia. This Activity Will Develop Within
A Weaker Instability Airmass But Strong Shear Would Otherwise
Support Storm Organization. For This Reason Have Extended 5 Percent Severe Probs Nwd Along The Progressive Cold Front To Account For Marginally Severe Hail And Locally Damaging Wind Gusts.

Cntrl/Ern Gulf Coast...Cntrl Fl Peninsula...

Low Level Warm Advection Will Likely Be The Primary Forcing
Mechanism In The Generation And Maintenance Of Multiple Thunderstorm Clusters And Perhaps An Mcs Along The Gulf Coast During The Day2 Period.

Strong/Organized Convection Will Likely Be Ongoing At The Beginning Of The Period Across The Lower Ms Valley Along The Nose Of A 40kt Llj.

As This Jet Shifts Downstream Toward The Fl Panhandle The Focus For Deep Convection Should Shift Toward The Ern Gulf Coast. Given The Expected Precip Shield There Is Uncertainty Regarding The Degree Of Destabilization Inland.

Strongest Low Level Heating Will Be Confined To The Cntrl/Srn Fl Peninsula Well Ahead Of The Large Scale Forcing. While Daytime Heating Should Contribute To Scattered Diurnal Convection Across The Peninsula It Appears The Greatest Concentration Of Deep Convection Will Be Affiliated With Focused Llj. Locally Damaging Winds Are The Main Severe Threat And Perhaps An Isolated Tornado If Sufficient Destabilization Occurs And Near-Sfc Based Convection Evolves.

Given The Uncertainty In Instability Will Not Introduce A Categorical Slgt Risk At This Time.

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