Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Sat Oct 12

As A Longwave Trough Persists Over The Western Conus Into
Saturday...An Upper Trough Currently Over The Northern Plains Will
Continue To Advance Northeastward Over Northern Portions Of
Manitoba/Ontario...While A Secondary Trough Amplifies/Digs
Southeastward Over The Pacific Northwest/Great Basin.

Primary Cold Front Will Spread Eastward Over The Midwest/Great Lakes Region...Where Weak Destabilization Will Likely Preclude A Severe Risk In Spite Of Tstm Potential. But Farther South...Richer
Moisture/Stronger Instability Will Precede The More South-Southeastward Moving Portion Of The Front Across The Arklatex/ Southern Plains...With Some Severe Risk Possible As Detailed Below.

Southern Plains/Arklatex...

Showers/Tstms Will Accompany A Southeastward-Moving Cold Front
Saturday Morning...With This Front Expected To Decelerate/Eventually
Stall Across Portions Of The Region By Saturday Night. Cloud Cover/ Lingering Precipitation May Impact The Warm Sector Ahead Of The Cold Front...Although Isolated Surface Based Tstm Development Will Be Possible Into Saturday Afternoon Where The Boundary Layer Destabilizes Near The Front...Perhaps Most Probable Across Portions
Of Southern Ok Into North-Central/West-Central Tx.

That Said...Steady Height Rises/Weakening Mass Convergence May Be Large Scale Hindrances For Deeper Convective Development Saturday Afternoon...In Spite Of Ample Boundary Layer Moisture/Steep
Low-Level Lapse Rates And Moderate Potential Instability Outside Of
Any Lingering Cloud Cover. Updraft Vigor/Overall Severe Potential
May Be Tempered By Subsidence/Warming Mid-Level Temperatures ...Which Are Well-Reflected In Forecast Soundings Via Relatively Poor
Mid-Level Lapse Rates. This Is In Addition To Overall Expectations
Of Appreciably Weakening Mass Convergence Near The Front During The Afternoon Under The Influence Of Rising Heights.

While Some Severe Risk In The Form Of Hail/Wind Will Be Possible On Saturday Given Sufficient Buoyancy And Vertical Shear... Aforementioned Negating Factors Imply A Conditionality/ Marginality...Or At Least Uncertainty...To The Extent And Likelihood Of The Overall Severe Threat. In All...Only Low Severe Probabilities Currently Appear Warranted.


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