Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Sat May 18

Nrn And Cntrl Plains...

An Upper-Level Trough Will Move Slowly Ewd Across The Four Corners Region On Saturday As Southwest Flow Remains In Place Across The Great Plains.

At The Sfc...A Low Is Forecast To Deepen In Ks As A Cold Front Advances Sewd Across The Cntrl Plains. A Broad Warm Sector Is Forecast To Be In Place By Saturday Afternoon From The Nrn Plains And Upper Ms Valley Extending Swd Into The Srn Plains And Lower To Mid Ms Valley.

Moderate To Strong Instability Should Develop Across Much Of The Great Plains Where Warm Mid-Level Temps And Capping Will Likely Suppress Convective Development For Much Of The Day.

Model Forecasts First Initiate Storms Early Saturday Afternoon In The Nrn Plains Where Capping Should Not Be Much Of A Problem.

Further Southwest Along The Front...Convective Initiation Should Be Delayed By The Cap Until Late Afternoon.

As Storms Increase In Coverage Along The Front Early Saturday Evening...The Development Of A Linear Mcs Appears Possible. This Feature Is Forecast To Move Sewd Across Neb And Nrn Ks. More Isolated Thunderstorms Should Develop Swd Across Cntrl And Srn Ks Into Wrn Ok Where A Dryline Is Forecast To Be Present.

Forecast Soundings At 00z From Sern Sd Sswwd Into Nw Ks Show Mlcape Values In The 2000 To 3500 J/Kg Range With 30 To 40 Kt Of Deep Layer Shear. This Combined With Steep Mid-Level Lapse Rates Should Be Favorable For Supercells With Large Hail. Hailstones Greater Than 2 Inches In Diameter Appear Possible With The More Dominant Cells Especially Early In The Event When Cells Will More Likely Be Discrete.

The More Dominant Supercells May Also Have A Tornado Threat.

If A Linear Mcs Can Organize Early Saturday Evening...Then Wind Damage May Become The Dominant Severe Threat.

Further To The South Along The Dryline...Any Cell That Can Initiate In Spite Of The Warm Mid-Level Temps Should Have A Threat For Large Hail And Wind Damage.

Srn Plains...

A Well-Defined Dryline Should Be In Place Saturday Afternoon From
Srn Ks Extending Swd Across Wrn Ok Into Nw Tx. East Of The Dryline ...Sfc Dewpoints Should Be In The Mid To Upper 60s F. In Spite Of Moderate Instability...Forecast Soundings Show A Stout Capping Inversion And 700 Mb Temps Exceeding +12 C. This Could Be Problematic For Convective Initiation.

If A Storm Or Two Can Develop From Srn Ks Swd Into Nw Tx...Then Moderate Instability...Steep Mid-Level Lapse Rates And Deep Layer Shear Should Be Adequate For A Severe Threat. Large Hail And Wind Damage Would Be The Primary Threats. The Threat Should Remain Isolated Due To The Warm Mid-Level Temps.

Tn Valley...

An Upper-Level Trough Is Forecast To Move Sewd Across The Tn Valley On Saturday. As Sfc Temps Warm During The Day... Thunderstorms Should Develop Beneath The Upper-Level Trough. Steep Low-Level Lapse Rates And Sfc Dewpoints In The Mid 60s F May Be Enough For A Marginal Wind Damage Threat Saturday Afternoon.


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