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Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Sat Jun 15

A Zonal Flow Regime Will Envelop Much Of The Conus As A Shortwave Trough Over The Prairie Provinces Dampens. Associated Surface Cold Front Will Push Ewd Across The Upper Ms Valley/Great Lakes...With Trailing Portion Stalling As A Quasi-Stationary Front Through The Mid-Mo Valley To Cntrl High Plains. A Weak Mid-Level Impulse Will Gradually Shift E/Newd From The Srn Plains To The Ozark Plateau.

Corn Belt...Lower Mo Valley...

A Couple Of Tstm Clusters Should Be Ongoing At 12z/Sat Along The
Nose Of The Llj From Parts Of The Mid-Mo Valley To Upper Midwest.
This Convection May Weaken During The Morning...But Should
Redevelop/Diurnally Intensify Along Outflow/Pre-Frontal Confluence
Bands By Afternoon. As Pockets Of Downstream Heating Occur Amidst An Air Mass Characterized By High Mean Mixing Ratios Supporting Surface Dew Points From The Middle 60s To Lower 70s...A Moderate To Strongly Unstable Air Mass Should Develop Along The Periphery Of The Plains Eml Plume. Although The Belt Of Strong Mid-Level Wlys Associated With The Prairie Provinces Shortwave Trough Will Remain Confined Across Nd Into Nrn Mn...Sufficient Deep-Layer Shear Will Exist For A Few Supercells And Multicell Clusters. Primary Risks Should Be Isolated Large Hail And Damaging Winds...But A Tornado Or Two Is Also Possible.

Cntrl High Plains...

Low-Level Upslope Flow Will Commence D1 And Persist Into D2
Maintaining 50s Surface Dew Points To The N Of A Stationary Front.
Although Upper-Level Support Appears Nebulous...Isolated To
Scattered Convection Should Form Over The Higher Terrain And Spread Ewd Within Moderate Mid-Level Wlys. Nearly Straight-Line Hodographs With Sufficient Deep-Layer Shear For A Few Supercells Should Yield A Risk For Isolated Large Hail And Localized Severe Winds.


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