Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Sat Jan 12

A Large/Slow-Moving Upper Trough Initially Situated Over The Wrn
U.S. Is Forecast To Make Little Ewd Progress Overall...Though
Multiple Shorter-Wavelength Features Will Progress Across The
Central U.S. On The Ern Fringe Of The Trough.

At The Surface...A Low Initially Invof Mn Is Forecast To Move Quickly Newd Across Ontario. A Trailing Cold Front Extending Initially From The Mn Low Sswwd Into S Tx Will Also Make Slow Ewd Progress... Crossing The Upper Great Lakes/Midwest/Ms Valley With Time And Reaching A Position From Lk Erie Swwd To La By 13/12z.

In Addition To Focusing A Zone Of Shower And Thunderstorm
Activity...Limited Severe Potential Over Sern Ar And Vicinity May Also Evolve This Period.

Arklatex Into Portions Of The Mid Ms Valley...

Though Fast Swly Flow Aloft Is Progged Across The Frontal Zone The
Entire Period...Minimal Instability Suggests Widespread But Weak/ Low-Topped Convection -- Much Of Which May Occur To The Cool Side Of The Front. Overall Therefore...Severe Weather Is Not Expected From Roughly The Mid Ms Valley Newd.

Farther S However...Models Suggest That Weak Surface-Based
Instability May Evolve With Time...As Ample Low-Level Moisture
Advects Nwd. With A Weak Frontal Wave Forecast By Both The Nam And Gfs Invof The Arklatex By Afternoon...Backed Low-Level Flow May
Contribute To Lower Tropospheric Shear Sufficient For A Marginal
Tornado Threat.

Convection-Allowing High-Res Model Runs Struggle To Produce Sustained Cellular Convection In The Warm Sector -- Which Stands To Reason Given Weak Instability And The Upper Trough Remaining Well To The West.

Still...Will Introduce 5%/See Text This Forecast In A Narrow Zone From The Arklatex To Wrn Tn To Cover Limited Threat For An Isolated Tornado Or Possibly A Stronger Gust Or Two.

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