Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Sat Dec 8

Synopsis...

Variability Among The Models And Spread Among The Model Ensembles Begins To Increase During This Forecast Period... Concerning Short Wave Developments Within The Evolving Upper Flow Regime. But... Guidance Continues To Indicate Significant Amplification Within The Large-Scale Pattern Across The Eastern Pacific...Where A Large Upper Ridge And Embedded High Center Are Forecast To Build.

As This Occurs...And Coinciding With A Significant Low-Level Cold Intrusion To The Lee Of The Northern And Central Rockies...A Vigorous Downstream Short Wave Impulse Appears Likely To Dig Across Parts Of The Eastern Great Basin. This Is Expected To Occur In The Wake Of Another Short Wave Impulse...The Track Of Which Remains More Unclear East Of The Rockies...Across Parts Of The Northern And Central Plains.

Farther South And East...Weak Mid-Level Height Rises Appear
Possible Across Parts Of The Gulf And South Atlantic Coast Region.
However...Mid/Upper Flow Is Expected To Remain Broadly Cyclonic
Across Much Of The Remainder Of The Central And Eastern States... With More Subtle Embedded Short Wave Impulses.

These Smaller Scale Features May Contribute To Scattered
Thunderstorm Activity Saturday/Saturday Night...From Parts Of The
Southern Plains East Northeastward Into Parts Of The Lower Ohio And Tennessee Valleys. This Is Where A Moistening Confluent
Southwesterly Low-Level Flow Regime May Contribute To Weak To Modest Destabilization.

Arklatex Through Srn Ar/Nw La/Nw Ms And Wrn Tn...

Guidance...Including Nam Forecast Soundings...Indicates The
Development Of Mixed Layer Cape At Least On The Order Of 500 J/Kg Or So Across The Region By Saturday Afternoon. Uncertainty Exists
Concerning Forcing For Upward Vertical Motion...But Lower/Mid
Tropospheric Capping Is Not Expected To Be Substantially Inhibitive
To Storm Development During The Late Afternoon And Evening Hours. Vertical Shear Beneath 40-50 Kt Westerly 500 Mb Flow May
Contribute To An Environment Marginally Conducive To Severe
Storms...Including An Isolated Supercell Or Two...Given Storm
Initiation.


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