Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Sat Apr 27

A Shortwave Trough Moving Across The Srn Plains Day 1 Should Weaken Some As It Tracks Toward The Lower Oh And Lower Ms Valleys...With Gradual Height Falls Expected To Spread Across The Oh/Tn Valleys... Central Gulf Coast States To Tx.

Despite A Weakening Trend Of Quasi-Zonal Midlevel Wlys Within The Srn Periphery Of The Trough...A Band Of 40 Kt Wind Speeds Should Extend From Far W Tx Through Central Tx To The Nrn Extent Of The Central Gulf Coast States And Srn Appalachians To Sc.

A Surface Low Attendant To The Shortwave Trough Should Be Located
Invof The Ok/Ar Border At 12z Saturday...And Track Toward The Lower
Oh Valley This Forecast Period. A Cold Front Trailing Swwd From The
Low Will Settle Swd Into East And Central Tx...While A Warm Front
Initially Extending Sewd Through The Lower Ms Valley Move Enewd
Across The Central Gulf Coast States And Tn Valley.

Lower Ms Valley Region...

Elevated Storms Will Probably Be Ongoing Within Zone Of Isentropic
Ascent Along And North Of Warm Front From Portions Of Ar Ewd Into
The Tn Valley. The Warm Sector Across This Region Will Have
Partially Modified Gulf Air Advected Into This Area With Surface
Dewpoints In The Low To Mid 60s. Potential Will Exist For The
Atmosphere To Become Moderately Unstable /1000-1500 J/Kg Mlcape/ As Diabatic Warming Of The Boundary Layer Commences. Ern Extension Of The Eml Will Likely Have Advected Through Warm Sector Resulting In At Least A Modest Cap. However...The Cap Will Likely Weaken As The Boundary Layer Destabilizes And Storms May Develop Along And Ahead Of Sewd Advancing Cold Front Saturday Afternoon.

Models Indicate Some Uncertainty With The Wwd Extent Of Tstm Development...But This Outlook Will Maintain The Slight Risk.

Llj Is Forecast To Shift Into The Tn Valley Early In Period In Association With A Lead Vort Max Ejecting Through Ern Periphery Of Upper Trough Leaving Weak And Veered Low Level Winds In Warm Sector. However...The Belt Of Stronger Mid-Upper Flow Within Base Of The Trough Will Contribute To Stronger Largely Unidirectional 0-6 Km Shear.

Potential Will Exist For Some Updrafts To Rotate With Storm Splits Also Possible. Attendant Threats For Hail And Damaging Winds Exist Across This Area.

Edwards Plateau/S Tx Into Cntrl Tx...

Confidence Is Greater With The Development Of Tstms...And Coverage Thereof...Across The Srn Extent Of The Edwards Plateau Into Adjacent S Tx As The Surface Front Settles Swd Into This Region...And Also Expected Tstm Development Within Upslope Flow Regime Into Nrn Coahuila.

This Is Based On Agreement With The 12z Nam/Gfs And 00z Ecmwf ...And Warrants An Increase In Severe Probabilities And The Introduction Of A Categorical Slight Risk.

Steep Eml Already In Place Per 12z Drt Sounding Will Be Maintained Into Day 2...Though Is Forecast To Weaken Saturday Afternoon Given The Gradual Height Falls And Diabatic Heating In The Warm Sector. These Factors Will Also Contribute To The Development Of Moderate Instability.

Although Flow In The 0-3 Km Layer Is Forecast To Be Very Weak... Wswly Midlevel Winds Up To 35-40 Kt Will Result In Effective Bulk Shear Around 40 Kt Supportive Of Organized Storms...With Straight
Hodographs Suggesting Splitting Storms Will Be Possible.

Moderate Instability And Steep Midlevel Lapse Rates Will Favor A Threat For Large Hail...Some Very Large...And Damaging Winds.

Activity Should Tend To Develop/Spread Enewd Into South Central Tx Invof The Front...With Severe Threat Persisting Into The Evening Until
Boundary Layer Cooling Increases Surface Based Inhibition.


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