Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Mon Sep 9

Upper-Level Shortwave Trough Located Over The Nrn High Plains At The Start Of The Period Is Forecast To Progress Ewd Into The Upper Ms Valley By The End Of The Period. As This Occurs...Low-Amplitude
Upper Ridge Will Build Into An Area Of Upper Cyclonic Flow Over Ern
Canada...Which Will Lead To A Strengthening Height Gradient And
Enhance An Upper Jet Streak Over Ontario/Quebec. Right Entrance
Region Of This Jet Will Spread From The Upper Ms Valley Into The
Upper Great Lakes Region During The Afternoon And Night...With
Strong Ascent Promoting Deepening Of A Low-Level Cyclone. This In
Turn Will Yield A 40+ Kt Low-Level Swly Jet That Will Progress From
Wi/Upper Mi Ewd Into Sern Ontario.

Meanwhile...Trailing Surface Cold Front Will Extend From The Upper Ms Valley Swwd Into The Cntrl High Plains During The Late Afternoon And Evening...With The Wrn Segment Becoming Quasi-Stationary Overnight...And The Ern Segment Elongating Across The Upper Great Lakes Region.

Upper Ms Valley Into The Upper Great Lakes Region...

Progressive Upper Trough And Associated Low-Level Cyclone Will Yield Strong Vertical Shear Profiles Sufficient For Both Supercells And A Forward Propagating Mcs Over The Upper Ms/Upper Great Lakes Region During Monday Afternoon And Night. However...Latest Model Forecast Soundings Indicate Boundary Layer Destabilization Will Be
Insufficient For Surface Based Thunderstorm Development. Thus... Low-End Severe Weather Probabilities Have Been Maintained With This Outlook.

Srn Mn Into Nern Co...

Isolated Thunderstorms Are Forecast To Develop Monday Afternoon
Along A Cold Front Extending From Srn Mn Into The Cntrl High Plains ...With Additional Isolated/Scattered Storms Also Evolving Off Of The Front Range In Co. Moderate Cape...A Steep Lapse Rate Environment...And Enhanced Shear Along The Frontal Boundary May
Support A Marginal/Isolated Threat For Strong/Severe Gusts And Hail.

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