Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Mon Sep 23

Fast Wnw Flow Extending Across The E Pacific Into The Nwrn States
Suggests That The Day 1 Four Corners Shortwave Trough Should Remain Progressive Into Day 2. However...This System Will Likely Undergo De-Amplification...As It Encounters A More Slowly-Progressive Ridge To Its East On Monday With Heights Rising From The Tn/Oh Valleys Into Ontario/Wrn Quebec.

The Trough Will Track Newd...Taking On A Gradual Negative Tilt Over The Central Plains Toward The Upper Midwest...While The Srn Extent Of This System Advances Ewd Across The Srn Plains.

Nrn And Central Plains...

A Few Changes To The General Tstm Line Have Been Made With This
Outlook Issuance Across The Nrn And Central Plains Per Latest Model Forecast Of The Greatest Likelihood For Tstm Coverage Monday Into Monday Evening.

A Cold Front...Attendant To The Mid/Upper Level Trough...Will Shift Ewd And Undergo Frontolysis Across The Nrn/Cntrl Plains...While A Lee Cyclone Forming Late Day 1 Over Nern Co/Neb Panhandle Tracks Ewd Across Neb. Moisture Return Ahead Of The Trough/Front Will Be Limited And Buoyancy Should Remain Scant For Only Sporadic Deep Convection.

A Risk For Small Hail And Strong Wind Gusts May Develop With Sufficient Surface Heating Within The Cold Core Of The Trough Monday Afternoon Over Parts Of The Cntrl Plains...But Overall Coverage Does Not Currently Warrant The Inclusion Of Severe Weather Probabilities.

Gulf Coast And Lower Ms Valley To E Tx.

Isolated To Scattered Storms Will Be Possible Across Fl And Along A
Quasi-Stationary Front Extending Wwd From Nrn Fl To The Upper Tx

The Potential Exists For Scattered Showers And Embedded Elevated Tstms To Form Monday Night From Parts Of E Tx Into The Lower Ms Valley As Weak Midlevel Height Falls/Destabilization Occur With The Approach Of The Srn Portion Of The Plains Trough.

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