Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Mon Sep 2

The Large Scale Pattern Will Remain Amplified Through Labor Day.

A Prominent Rockies/Plains Upper Ridge Will Be Flanked By A Modestly Amplifying/Eastward-Shifting Upper Trough Over Ontario/ Quebec And The Adjacent Lower Great Lakes/Northeast States... While An Additional Upper Low Remains Quasi-Stationary/ Retrogrades Just Off The Coast Of The Pacific Northwest.

Oh Valley/Mid-Atlantic States To Southern New England...

The Region Will Be Influenced By Moderately Strong Cyclonic Flow
Aloft In Association With The Aforementioned Eastward-Shifting Upper
Trough...Although The Most Consequential/Certain Forcing For Ascent
Should Be Focused In Areas Near/North Of The International Border.

Some Of The Details Are Unclear At The Day 2 Time Frame Owing To
Some Uncertainties Regarding Frontal Timing And Preceding Cloud
Cover/Scattered Pockets Of Precipitation. But In General...Tstms Are
Likely To Diurnally Increase Monday Afternoon Along/Ahead Of The
East-Southeast Advancing Cold Front Across The Oh Valley/Northeast
States...And Potentially Near A Pre-Frontal Trough Across The
Mid-Atlantic States. Vertical Shear...Potentially As High As 30-35 Kt... Will Be Supportive Of Sustained Multicells Capable Of Localized Wind Damage/Some Hail Where Sufficient Destabilization Occurs Monday
Afternoon.

Southern Plains To Tn Valley/Southern Appalachians...

Corridors Of Stronger Heating/Destabilization Are Likely To Materialize Monday Afternoon South Of A South-Southeastward
Spreading Cold Front...Which May Be Efficiently Augmented By Early
Day Cloud Cover/Precipitation In Some Areas. Even While Well-Removed From Appreciable Vertical Shear...Sufficient Heating/Steepening Of Low-Level Lapse Rates Should Be Adequate For A Pulse-Type Risk Of Downbursts/Locally Damaging Winds Especially Mid/Late Afternoon Into Early Evening Monday.


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