Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Mon Oct 7

Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States Into New England...

The Closed Upper Trough Currently Over The Midwest Is Expected To
Accelerate Northeastward On Monday As It Begins To Phase With An
Additional Trough Over Portions Of Quebec/Ontario. Showers/Some
Tstms Are Likely To Be Ongoing Monday Morning Near An
Eastward-Advancing Cold Front As It Spreads East Of The
Appalachians. This Potential For Ongoing Precipitation/Cloud Cover ...And Relatively Weak Lapse Rates Aloft...Provides Uncertainty Regarding The Exact Degree Of Destabilization During The Diurnal
Heating Cycle.

But With A Very Moist Airmass Already In Place Across The Region ...And Given The Expected Evolution/Increasingly Negative Tilt Of The Upper Trough...There Will Be Some Severe Potential Particularly Monday Afternoon...Even With Relatively Limited Buoyancy. This Will Be Associated With Strong Forcing For Ascent And A Marked Strengthening Of Lower-Middle Tropospheric Winds...Accentuated By 50+ Kt Ssw Winds Within The Lowest 1 Km.

Overall Scenario Could Support A Strong/Potentially Severe Low-Topped Organized Line Of Convection...With Possible Embedded Small-Scale Bows. Even Modestly Sustained /Perhaps Even Non-Lightning Producing/ Embedded Updrafts May Cause Concern For Damaging Winds Monday Afternoon...And Perhaps Even A Tornado.


Farther South...Somewhat Weaker Forcing For Ascent/Vertical Shear
Will Extend Southward Into The Carolinas...But Even So...Isolated
Damaging Winds May Be Possible Within A Sufficiently Heated/ Unstable Airmass.

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